tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-85740428036455426002024-03-13T20:47:18.996-04:00Loose Ends in Economics- Predrag Rajsic's BlogPredrag Rajsichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00301941050662222192noreply@blogger.comBlogger220125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8574042803645542600.post-12193678579733331192023-10-31T14:14:00.002-04:002023-10-31T14:24:44.244-04:00How do I Identify (myself)?<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgbp1t43vOBDCEu6Q23VCTI0IOD7nIERStjgojDcHxouiwX5xxBvuxUBSO42yAidJKkH0bMyjlapYCwrdVsXFVVdg8f75Wy76jR76XZzI8b5La3ktHUBf4uvlF66IykphywRwy0hru5Na41sut3iBsmUV3195tAP2P652v5OTIREWdn5OPUW9hQKEJgpHTt/s1440/50024006_10161170098425234_8235676532555644928_n.jpg" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1072" data-original-width="1440" height="238" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgbp1t43vOBDCEu6Q23VCTI0IOD7nIERStjgojDcHxouiwX5xxBvuxUBSO42yAidJKkH0bMyjlapYCwrdVsXFVVdg8f75Wy76jR76XZzI8b5La3ktHUBf4uvlF66IykphywRwy0hru5Na41sut3iBsmUV3195tAP2P652v5OTIREWdn5OPUW9hQKEJgpHTt/w320-h238/50024006_10161170098425234_8235676532555644928_n.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>The question of identity is coming up more and more in official professional forms of communication. Recently, I was given a survey that was asking how I identify racially, sexually etc. There were many options given, some of which I am seeing for the first time and don't know what they mean. The survey did not offer definitions. <div><br /></div><div>To me, this question is more confusing than anything. If the question is asking how others would identify me, then I understand the question. But if it is asking how I identify myself, then I don't know how to answer it. This is why.<p></p><p>I had classes in university on identification of rocks, trees, plants in general, chemicals etc. In these classes, you learn how to use physical observations to determine the group to which a certain object belongs. These groups and categories were created by people for the purpose of organizing and understanding the world around them. The rock simply IS whatever it is. Its identity as described by categories or collectives exists only in the minds of people. </p><p>So, when someone asks me how I identify myself, meaning to which category I belong, that's a question that I have trouble interpreting. I never bother to identify myself because this is a construct created by someone other than me, and it needs to be based on something they can physically observe on me so that they can assign me into a category. From my perspective, I simply AM whatever I am. It is other people's job to classify me.</p><p>I can tell you how others identify me because I don't live under a rock, but I think it is a waste of my time to attempt to go through the process of "identifying" myself.<br /></p><p>Of course, I am not saying that others should also consider it a waste of time. Preferences are subjective, and they do change over time. I remember the time when I was a teenager and I was focused on looking like a member of a Seattle grunge rock band. I guess you could say I wanted to belong to that collective or I wanted others to think I was a part of it. Perhaps you could even say that I "identified" as a member of the "grunge community" whatever that may have been. This is where I found a source of emotional security and self-realization. </p><p>I still like some of the music, but I certainly have a different view on, for example, Kurt Cobain as a role model. Thank God I don't think his depressed worldview is a sign of intellectual and moral superiority as I did back then. In the meantime, I grew up and learned how to be happy with myself irrespective of my current position in the social landscape. The picture above on the left is from a few years later when Serj Tankian was an ideal of beauty in my mind. </p><p>Based on the previous paragraph, someone might conclude that insisting on identity politics encourages adolescent behaviour in adults and delays maturing of adolescents. But, before you decide to identify me as someone I wouldn't want to be, let me state that this conclusion might be wrong. Whether it is wrong or not, we will know only if we put some serious study into testing this hypothesis.<br /></p><p><br /><br /></p></div>Predrag Rajsichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00301941050662222192noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8574042803645542600.post-63254996436436942582023-07-11T14:11:00.001-04:002023-07-11T14:13:10.434-04:00Why I am against the unionizing of lecturers at the University of Waterloo<p style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "Helvetica Neue Light", HelveticaNeue-Light, "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; margin: 1em 0px; outline: none; text-align: justify;">I will not be describing the background of the issue. This post is for people who know the background. <br /><br />I am against this unionization on at least two levels: (1) on the level of reason, and (2) on the level of intuition. <br aria-hidden="true" /></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "Helvetica Neue Light", HelveticaNeue-Light, "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; margin: 1em 0px; outline: none; text-align: justify;">On the level of reason, we can start with the basic model of unions. Unions are monopolies of labour supply. Unions control the decisions of each individual worker in the sense that they decide when and under what conditions its members will work. This way, unions effectively control the supply of labour. </p><p style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "Helvetica Neue Light", HelveticaNeue-Light, "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; margin: 1em 0px; outline: none; text-align: justify;">The wage premium that is often cited as a major outcome of unionization is a consequence of unions' monopoly power. Whenever the quantity supplied of anything is restricted below the competitive level, the price (in this case the wage) rises above the competitive level. As a consequence, some people who would have been employed under the competitive outcome are no longer employed under the monopoly (unionized) outcome. <br aria-hidden="true" /><br aria-hidden="true" />The proponents of unions may argue that the union will prevent the employer from reducing the number of employees below the competitive level, but this is simply impossible if unions are to bring the benefits they are promising. The supply will not be limited explicitly but implicitly by the basic structure of unionized work environments. The employer may not fire some employees after unionization. Rather, the employer will likely slow down the hiring process in the future compared to the scenario on which there was no unionization.<br aria-hidden="true" /><br aria-hidden="true" />To give you an example of a monopoly that did something similar, we can look at Canadian dairy supply management. In 1972, a series of restrictions on the supply of milk was instituted giving the Canadian Dairy Commission (CDC) a monopoly power in the supply of milk in Canada. Canadian dairy farmers were no longer able to decide how much milk they would produce. That quantity of milk produced was determined for them by the CDC. The CDC did not immediately reduce the quantity of milk supplied. Instead, it simply kept it at about 80 million hectoliters per year for a decade or so while there was an increasing trend in the demand for milk prior to 1972. This effectively reduced the quantity supplied of milk relative to the competitive outcome in the years after 1972. </p><p style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "Helvetica Neue Light", HelveticaNeue-Light, "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; margin: 1em 0px; outline: none; text-align: justify;">Taking this analogy to unions as monopolies, both unions and employers would benefit from a slowdown in the increases in the number of employees in the years subsequent to the unionization year. What does this mean for the lecturers? Some of us who are on a definite term contract may not see that contract renewed. Some future job openings that would have existed in the absence of unions will not be there if we unionize. Thus, the benefits that the union members enjoy will be at the expense of the nonmembers. <br aria-hidden="true" /><br aria-hidden="true" />Standard economic theory also suggests that there is excess supply or excess demand of anything, discriminatory practices determine who gets selected. These discriminatory practices may be illegal, but they are often nondetectable or nonforcible. For example, when there is excess demand for apartments, landlords use their own criteria to whom they will rent an apartment, including age, ethnicity, race etc. One might argue that this is largely illegal when one is deciding whom to employ. The point is that there is a tendency to use discriminatory practices whenever possible. <br aria-hidden="true" /><br aria-hidden="true" />On the intuitive level, I am against unionization because of the track record of my decision-making. I came to Canada in my early twenties as a manual labourer with a dream to go to university. Eventually, I got into an undergraduate program at the University of Guelph as a senior student. Ten years later, I had my PhD, and now I am here as a definite term lecturer. The decisions that I made so far that lead me to where I am now always had an intuitive component. My dream has come true. <br aria-hidden="true" /><br aria-hidden="true" />Now, I see a threat to that dream in this needless risk. If the union has the power when I work and when I don't, and that is essentially behind the power to strike, the union will determine whether I will be able to pay my mortgage or other essential expenses. I have a household of eight people who largely depend on me. Putting their well-being in the hands of the union decision-makers is a risk that terrifies me. </p>Predrag Rajsichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00301941050662222192noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8574042803645542600.post-85395348546585594142021-05-21T11:39:00.002-04:002021-11-03T13:50:58.645-04:00How I restored my credit rating after a credit card company claimed it was all my fault<p><br /></p><div class="o9v6fnle cxmmr5t8 oygrvhab hcukyx3x c1et5uql ii04i59q" style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: "Segoe UI Historic", "Segoe UI", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div></div><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">I am currently teaching a personal finance course, and this story fell right into my lap as a case study that is perfect for the course. It is about building and maintaining your credit rating. Your own financial discipline is important, but it is also important not to let creditors bully you into accepting their mistakes without a fight. </div><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></div><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">I bought a laptop last year at BestBuy and put it on one of those credit cards with zero interest for 12 months. The card issuer was Desjardins. In December of last year, I called their automatic telephone machine to get my balance. <span style="font-family: inherit;">Desjardins' telephone machine said: "Your account balance is $106.41." Then I paid that amount, and thought that was the end of it. Since I was making payments of $150 a month earlier in order to pay it off sooner, I had no idea that my required monthly payment was 106.41. So, what the machine said to me was my next payment, not my account balance. But, I had no idea that they were using the term "balance" wrong until they called me in March, claiming I missed two monthly payments. Of course, I paid that right away and then paid off the rest of the balance. Whoever I talked to, claimed that this won't affect my credit rating. However, a week ago, I checked my rating and realized that it went down by about 170 points because of one missed payment on that Desjardin's card. </span><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div></div></div><div class="o9v6fnle cxmmr5t8 oygrvhab hcukyx3x c1et5uql ii04i59q" style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: "Segoe UI Historic", "Segoe UI", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">I called Desjardins to ask them to do something about this, but the best they could do was to tell me that this was not their fault, and that it was my responsibility to double check if my balance was indeed paid off. Then I tried to explain to them that it is their responsibility to use the word "balance" properly, which they did not. Still, they did not want to admit this was their mistake. Every time, after being told that there is nothing they could do about this, I asked to talk to a higher manager. </div><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></div><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">Eventually, I told the second last manager: "I still believe that I can communicate my disappointment with the quality of your service to you and that you will be able to understand. This is why I am still choosing to talk to Desjardins and not to anyone outside of our relationship. However, you are giving me more and more indications that you don't want to listen to me at all. I am not persuaded by your argument that this was my fault. In fact, I am insulted by your lecturing me about my responsibilities. I am a grown up individual, and I know what my responsibilities are. I have told you repeatedly that your company stated that my *balance* was 106.41. That was not my balance. That was the next installment due. I am confident that it is your company's responsibility to use the correct and accurate language in communicating with its customers. Please, can you confirm that none of what I said resonates with you and you don't want to listen to me? If this is the case, I will have to communicate this elsewhere. I will probably include your company as a case study for bad customer relations in my economics lectures." </div><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></div></div><div class="o9v6fnle cxmmr5t8 oygrvhab hcukyx3x c1et5uql ii04i59q" style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: "Segoe UI Historic", "Segoe UI", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">After that, I was transferred to Kristopher "with a K", and he was as pleasant and as cheerful as a summer day. He was able to "see my point" and promised to fix the mistake. As I soon realized, Kristopher did keep his promise and reported the correction to Equifax. My credit score is back where it was before this miscommunication. </div><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></div><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjyJgHSB7sxkjFHi6qyzXcBrnfmQoJjWk4fEHG_beI2Fey6pVX7W6m0oEgbH272u_KB0Zo4rUH90_kYKDAZVgLVtgBaNRfQrnAC1JVEmV9d7D34u3n-6_sZJ1Lzl7KxIc3alE0920eGmr-v/s643/185405574_10165086067900234_7916644203548320644_n.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: center;"><img border="0" data-original-height="191" data-original-width="643" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjyJgHSB7sxkjFHi6qyzXcBrnfmQoJjWk4fEHG_beI2Fey6pVX7W6m0oEgbH272u_KB0Zo4rUH90_kYKDAZVgLVtgBaNRfQrnAC1JVEmV9d7D34u3n-6_sZJ1Lzl7KxIc3alE0920eGmr-v/s320/185405574_10165086067900234_7916644203548320644_n.jpg" width="320" /></a><br /><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhDzrVx_9OL6a7NU77Jh5gik6F_BF0bv7j0oza2EeewdzzGtEXbfWLLILqAcKjtnF1G8Vg9iZFJQjpHjFzH8a9-qmfSg7-3frTrUPBy5W4gnMjRVMv98Q_h5q5BLEmdx64baTcIY9MGdKSH/s812/185516939_10165086230970234_1657015079198392748_n.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: center;"><img border="0" data-original-height="389" data-original-width="812" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhDzrVx_9OL6a7NU77Jh5gik6F_BF0bv7j0oza2EeewdzzGtEXbfWLLILqAcKjtnF1G8Vg9iZFJQjpHjFzH8a9-qmfSg7-3frTrUPBy5W4gnMjRVMv98Q_h5q5BLEmdx64baTcIY9MGdKSH/s320/185516939_10165086230970234_1657015079198392748_n.jpg" width="320" /></a><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div></div><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">Thank you Kristopher, but I will try to avoid Desjardins at all costs in the future. Why? I am not sure if Desjardins' attitude changed abruptly because of my threat that I will bring them bad publicity, but I can't find a better explanation, knowing that they spent an hour and a half of their and my time claiming that there is nothing they could do for me. Even though they fixed the mistake, they showed they were willing to do so only when they saw they could be harmed.<span style="font-family: inherit;"> I don't want to do business with firms that understand only the language of threats. </span></div></div></div>Predrag Rajsichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00301941050662222192noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8574042803645542600.post-75684174266756969352021-01-25T13:34:00.002-05:002021-01-25T19:57:15.200-05:00Utjecaj koronavirusa na smrtnost starijih od 70 godina u Kanadi do 1. srpnja 2020. <p> </p><p>Prije desetak dana je premijer Ontarija, Doug Ford, iz <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/york-roman-baber-ontario-covid-19-january-15-2021-1.5874606">svoje
stranke izbacio Romana Barbera</a> koji je objavio otvoreno pismo Fordu u kojem
navodi da lockdowni prave više štete nego koristi. Barber je sebe izložio kao
laku metu jer je u pismu napravljena elementarna aritmetička greška. Barber je,
citirajući <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html">Centers
for Disease Control and Prevention</a> (CDC), ustvrdio da samo 0,054% ljudi starijih
od 70 godina oboljelih od korone umre. Naravno, ovo je netočno jer je slušbeni
postotak koji je naveden na siteu CDC-a 5.4%. Barber je na službeni podatak
0,054, što bukvalno znači 5,4 od 100 ili 5,4/100, dodao simbol za postotak. <span lang="sr-Latn-BA">Zašto je napravio ovakvu
grešku, teško je reći i ne bih se na tome zedržavao. Usredotočio bih se na
interpretaciju službenih podataka.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="sr-Latn-BA" style="mso-ansi-language: #181A;">Dakle,
po dosad poznatim podacima, možemo očekivati da će od 100 osoba starijih od 70
godina života koje budu zaražene koronavirusom, 5,4 osobe umrijeti. Naravno,
ovo su prosječni brojevi pa su i decimale moguće. Da bismo si to plastičnije
prikazali, primijetimo da je 5,4% isto što i 54 osobe na 1000. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="sr-Latn-BA" style="mso-ansi-language: #181A;">Međutim,
činjenica da 54 osobe od 1000 ljudi starosne dobi preko 70 godina umre nakon
što se zaraze koronavirusom ne kazuje sama po sebi puno. Potrebno je ovaj broj
usporediti sa normalnom smrtnošću za ovu dobnu grupu prije 2020. godine. Potrebno
je također znati ukupan broj preminulih od svih uzroka u dobnoj grupi preko 70
godina u 2020. godini. Zašto? Zamislimo prvo da su svi preminuli sa
koronavirusom baš zbog njega i preminuli. To znači da bi bez virusa oni
preživjeli i ne bi umrli od drugih uzroka te godine. To dalje znači da se broj
preminulih od koronavirusa dodaje broju preminulih od ostalih uzroka pa će i
ukupna smrtnost porasti. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="sr-Latn-BA" style="mso-ansi-language: #181A;">Od 4,5
milijuna osoba starijih od 70 godina u Kanadi je od 1. srpnja 2018. do 30.
lipnja 2019. preminulo 206,9 tisuća ljudi ili 46 na 1000 ludi u toj starosnoj
grupi. Krenimo od scenarija u kojem bi svi koji su umrli od koronavirusa 2020.
preživjeli bar još jednu godinu da se nisu zarazili. Ako od uzroka koji nisu
koronavirus u prosjeku umre 46 na 1000, onda se ovih 54 preminulih od korone dodaju
i ukupan broj preminulih je 100 na 1000. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="sr-Latn-BA" style="mso-ansi-language: #181A;">Razmotrimo
sada alternativni scenarij u kojem bi neki ljudi, koji su bili zaraženi
koronavirusom, preminuli čak i da nisu bili zaraženi. Ako su neki koji su
preminuli, a bili su zaraženi koronavirusom, preminuli zbog nekog drugog uzroka,
onda su oni već ubrojeni u onih 46 preminulih od drugih uzroka i ukupan broj
preminulih će biti manji od 100 na 1000. Ukupan broj preminulih po starosnim
grupama za period 1. srpnja 2019 do 30. lipnja 2020. još nije javno objavljen
na državnom statističkom siteu, ali je dostupan na </span><a href="http://www.statista.com/"><span lang="sr-Latn-BA" style="mso-ansi-language: #181A;">www.statista.com</span></a><span lang="sr-Latn-BA" style="mso-ansi-language: #181A;">. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="sr-Latn-BA" style="mso-ansi-language: #181A;">Prvo
ću usporediti ono što je dostupno na državnom statističkom siteu, a to su
ukupna smrtnost za ljude starije od 70 godina u 2019. i smrtnost onih koji su
bili zaraženi koronavirusom u 2020. Kad to sve usporedimo sa smrtnošću za period
1 srpnja 2019. do 30. lipnja 2020., dobit ćemo još jasniju sliku da li je broj
umrlih za starije od 70 godina porastao sa 46 na 100 ili sa 46 na neki broj
između 46 i 100. Također je moguće da lockdown povećeva smrtnost od drugih
uzroka, ali to ćemo ostaviti za neki drugi put. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="sr-Latn-BA" style="mso-ansi-language: #181A;">Statistics
Canada objavljuje podatke o smrtnosti po starosnim grupama do 1. srpnja svake
godine. Dakle, kad kažemo da je neki podatak za 2019., to se odnosi na period
od 1. srpnja 2018. do 30. lipnja 2019. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="sr-Latn-BA" style="mso-ansi-language: #181A;">Tabela
dolje pokazuje smrtnost na 1000 ljudi za starosne grupe preko 70 godina
starosti za 2019. godinu. Na primjer, oko 17 ljudi od 1000, starosne dobi
između 70 i 74 godine, u prosjeku umre godišnje u Kanadi. Ovaj broj se, naravno,
povećeva za starije pa za ljude preko 90 godina starosti, ta cifra je 188 na
1000 (ili 18,8%) godišnje.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="sr-Latn-BA" style="mso-ansi-language: #181A;"></span></p><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="MsoNormalTable" style="border-collapse: collapse; mso-padding-alt: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; mso-yfti-tbllook: 1184; width: 539px;">
<tbody><tr style="height: 54.5pt; mso-yfti-firstrow: yes; mso-yfti-irow: 0;">
<td nowrap="" style="background: rgb(217, 217, 217); border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-color: windowtext; border-left: 1.5pt solid; border-right: 1pt solid; border-style: solid; border-top: 1.5pt; height: 54.5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: .5pt; mso-border-color-alt: windowtext; mso-border-left-alt: 1.5pt; mso-border-right-alt: .5pt; mso-border-style-alt: solid; mso-border-top-alt: 1.5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 105pt;" width="140">
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;">Starosna grupa <o:p></o:p></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(217, 217, 217); border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left: none; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-top: 1.5pt solid windowtext; height: 54.5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext 1.5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 77pt;" width="103">
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;">Smrtnost na 1000 u 2019. godini<o:p></o:p></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(217, 217, 217); border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left: none; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-top: 1.5pt solid windowtext; height: 54.5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext 1.5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 117pt;" width="156">
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;">Ukupan broj osoba po starosnim
grupama 2019. godine<o:p></o:p></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(217, 217, 217); border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left: none; border-right: 1.5pt solid windowtext; border-top: 1.5pt solid windowtext; height: 54.5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext 1.5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext 1.5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 105pt;" width="140">
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;">Broj preminulih osoba 2019. godine po
starosnim grupama<o:p></o:p></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 14.5pt; mso-yfti-irow: 1;">
<td style="background: white; border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left: 1.5pt solid windowtext; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-top: none; height: 14.5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext 1.5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 105pt;" width="140">
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;">70 do 74<o:p></o:p></p>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="background: white; border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left: none; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-top: none; height: 14.5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 77pt;" width="103">
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;">17,1<o:p></o:p></p>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="background: white; border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left: none; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-top: none; height: 14.5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 117pt;" width="156">
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;">1 707 580<o:p></o:p></p>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="background: white; border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left: none; border-right: 1.5pt solid windowtext; border-top: none; height: 14.5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext 1.5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 105pt;" width="140">
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;">29 170<o:p></o:p></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 14.5pt; mso-yfti-irow: 2;">
<td style="background: white; border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left: 1.5pt solid windowtext; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-top: none; height: 14.5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext 1.5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 105pt;" width="140">
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;">75 do 79<o:p></o:p></p>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="background: white; border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left: none; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-top: none; height: 14.5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 77pt;" width="103">
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;">27,9<o:p></o:p></p>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="background: white; border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left: none; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-top: none; height: 14.5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 117pt;" width="156">
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;">1 164 798<o:p></o:p></p>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="background: white; border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left: none; border-right: 1.5pt solid windowtext; border-top: none; height: 14.5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext 1.5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 105pt;" width="140">
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;">32 476<o:p></o:p></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 14.5pt; mso-yfti-irow: 3;">
<td style="background: white; border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left: 1.5pt solid windowtext; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-top: none; height: 14.5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext 1.5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 105pt;" width="140">
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;">80 do 84<o:p></o:p></p>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="background: white; border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left: none; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-top: none; height: 14.5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 77pt;" width="103">
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;">49,1<o:p></o:p></p>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="background: white; border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left: none; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-top: none; height: 14.5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 117pt;" width="156">
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;">788 451<o:p></o:p></p>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="background: white; border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left: none; border-right: 1.5pt solid windowtext; border-top: none; height: 14.5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext 1.5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 105pt;" width="140">
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;">38 721<o:p></o:p></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 14.5pt; mso-yfti-irow: 4;">
<td style="background: white; border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left: 1.5pt solid windowtext; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-top: none; height: 14.5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext 1.5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 105pt;" width="140">
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;">85 do 89<o:p></o:p></p>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="background: white; border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left: none; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-top: none; height: 14.5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 77pt;" width="103">
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;">88,7<o:p></o:p></p>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="background: white; border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left: none; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-top: none; height: 14.5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 117pt;" width="156">
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;">511 996<o:p></o:p></p>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="background: white; border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left: none; border-right: 1.5pt solid windowtext; border-top: none; height: 14.5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext 1.5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 105pt;" width="140">
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;">45 423<o:p></o:p></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 14.5pt; mso-yfti-irow: 5;">
<td style="background: white; border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left: 1.5pt solid windowtext; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-top: none; height: 14.5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext 1.5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 105pt;" width="140">
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;">Preko 90<o:p></o:p></p>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="background: white; border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left: none; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-top: none; height: 14.5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 77pt;" width="103">
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;">188,4<o:p></o:p></p>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="background: white; border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left: none; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-top: none; height: 14.5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 117pt;" width="156">
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;">324 461<o:p></o:p></p>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left: none; border-right: 1.5pt solid windowtext; border-top: none; height: 14.5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext 1.5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 105pt;" valign="bottom" width="140">
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;">61 115<o:p></o:p></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 15pt; mso-yfti-irow: 6;">
<td style="background: white; border-bottom: 1.5pt solid windowtext; border-left: 1.5pt solid windowtext; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-top: none; height: 15pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext 1.5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext 1.5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 105pt;" width="140">
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;">Ukupno<o:p></o:p></p>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: 1.5pt solid windowtext; border-left: none; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-top: none; height: 15pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext 1.5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 77pt;" valign="bottom" width="103">
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;">46,0<o:p></o:p></p>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: 1.5pt solid windowtext; border-left: none; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-top: none; height: 15pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext 1.5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 117pt;" valign="bottom" width="156">
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;">4 497 286<o:p></o:p></p>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: 1.5pt solid windowtext; border-left: none; border-right: 1.5pt solid windowtext; border-top: none; height: 15pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 105pt;" valign="bottom" width="140">
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;">206 905<o:p></o:p></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 25.5pt; mso-yfti-irow: 7; mso-yfti-lastrow: yes;">
<td colspan="4" style="background: white; border: none; height: 25.5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext 1.5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 404pt;" width="539">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;">Izvori: <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18pt;"><!--[if !supportLists]-->1.<span style="font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">
</span><!--[endif]--><a href="https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1710000501">Population
estimates on July 1st, by age and sex (statcan.gc.ca)</a> <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18pt;"><!--[if !supportLists]-->2.<span style="font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">
</span><!--[endif]--><a href="https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1310070901"><span style="color: blue;">Deaths, by age group and sex (statcan.gc.ca)</span></a> <o:p></o:p></p>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="sr-Latn-BA" style="mso-ansi-language: #181A;">Da
bismo si ovo predstavili intuitivno, recimo prvo da od svih ljudi koji su bili stariji
od 90 godina 2019. godine, njih 18,8% je umrlo. Sljedeće godine, od onih koji
su preživjeli, oko 18,8% će preminuti. Za desetak godina, od onih koji su 2019.
imali 90 godina gotovo nitko neće ostati jer će to 2029. biti stogodišnjaci.
Ovu misaonu vježbu radim da bismo si plastičnije predstavili činjenicu da je
gotovo petina ljudi starijih od 90 godina preminula 2019. Tako visok postotak
nije neobičan za tu starosnu grupu. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="sr-Latn-BA" style="mso-ansi-language: #181A;">Prosječna
smrtnost za ljude starije of 70 godina je 2019. bila 46 osoba na 1000. Opet, da
bismo si to dočarali intuitivno, jasno je da će prosječna smrtnost za sve
starosne grupe starije od 70 godina biti negdje između najniže (koja je 17,1 za
one između 70 i 74 godine starosti) i najviše (koja je 188,4 za starije od 90
godina). <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="sr-Latn-BA" style="mso-ansi-language: #181A;">Prisjetimo
se procjene CDC-a od 54 preminula na 1000 zaraženih koronavirusom starijih od
70 godina. Dakle, bez koronavirusa je 2019. u Kanadi preminulo 46 ljudi od 1000
starijih od 70 godina. Procjenjuje se da su sa koronavirusm 2020. preminule 54
osobe na 1000 zaraženih u istoj dobnoj grupi. Da ponovimo, ovo ne znači da je i
ukupna smrtnost za tu dobnu grupu 2020. bila 54 od 1000 jer je ovo (1) procjena
bazirana na modelu CDC-a, a ne činjenični broj preminulih u Kanadi 2020 i (2)
jer se ova 54 ubrajaju samo oni koji su bili zaraženi koronavirusom. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="sr-Latn-BA" style="mso-ansi-language: #181A;">Pogledajmo
sad podatke za 2020. da bismo ih usporedili sa procjenama baziranim na CDC-evoj
brojci od 54 umrla od koronavirusa na 1000 zaraženih. Tabela ispod pokazuje podatke
za period od 1. srpnja 2019. do 30 lipnja 2020. Dakle, obuhvata prvi val
koronavirusa od ožujka do lipnja 2020. Ukupni broj umrlih je veći nego 2019.,
ali se i ukupni broj stanovnika Kanade povećao tako da je smrtnost po grupama
vrlo slična onoj iz 2019. Za neke grupe je za veća za 1 do 5 smrti na 1000 dok
je za grupu iznad 90 godina čak i niža nego 2019. Ukupno, smrtnost je za sve
grupe preko 70 godina starosti u 2020. godini iznosila 46,6 osoba na 1000. U
odnosu na 46,0 na 1000 iz 2019. ovo izgleda kao neznatno povećanje (manje od
jedne smrti na 1000). <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="MsoNormalTable" style="border-collapse: collapse; mso-padding-alt: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; mso-yfti-tbllook: 1184; width: 565px;">
<tbody><tr style="height: 56.5pt; mso-yfti-firstrow: yes; mso-yfti-irow: 0;">
<td nowrap="" style="background: rgb(217, 217, 217); border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-color: windowtext; border-left: 1.5pt solid; border-right: 1pt solid; border-style: solid; border-top: 1.5pt; height: 56.5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: .5pt; mso-border-color-alt: windowtext; mso-border-left-alt: 1.5pt; mso-border-right-alt: .5pt; mso-border-style-alt: solid; mso-border-top-alt: 1.5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 98pt;" width="131">
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;"><span style="color: black; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">Starosna Grupa <o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(217, 217, 217); border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left: none; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-top: 1.5pt solid windowtext; height: 56.5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext 1.5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 98pt;" width="131">
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;"><span style="color: black; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">Smrtnost na 1000 u 2020. godini<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(217, 217, 217); border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left: none; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-top: 1.5pt solid windowtext; height: 56.5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext 1.5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 116pt;" width="155">
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;"><span style="color: black; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">Ukupan broj osoba po starosnim
grupama 2020. godine<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(217, 217, 217); border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left: none; border-right: 1.5pt solid windowtext; border-top: 1.5pt solid windowtext; height: 56.5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext 1.5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext 1.5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 112pt;" width="149">
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;"><span style="color: black; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">Broj preminulih osoba 2020. godine po
starosnim grupama<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 15.5pt; mso-yfti-irow: 1;">
<td style="background: white; border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left: 1.5pt solid windowtext; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-top: none; height: 15.5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext 1.5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 98pt;" width="131">
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;"><span style="color: black; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">70 do 74<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="background: white; border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left: none; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-top: none; height: 15.5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 98pt;" width="131">
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;"><span style="color: black; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">17,7<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="background: white; border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left: none; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-top: none; height: 15.5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 116pt;" width="155">
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;"><span style="color: black; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">1 786 622<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left: none; border-right: 1.5pt solid windowtext; border-top: none; height: 15.5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext 1.5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 112pt;" valign="bottom" width="149">
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;"><span style="color: black; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">31 650<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 15.5pt; mso-yfti-irow: 2;">
<td style="background: white; border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left: 1.5pt solid windowtext; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-top: none; height: 15.5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext 1.5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 98pt;" width="131">
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;"><span style="color: black; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">75 do 79<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="background: white; border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left: none; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-top: none; height: 15.5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 98pt;" width="131">
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;"><span style="color: black; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">28,9<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="background: white; border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left: none; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-top: none; height: 15.5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 116pt;" width="155">
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;"><span style="color: black; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">1 218 303<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left: none; border-right: 1.5pt solid windowtext; border-top: none; height: 15.5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext 1.5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 112pt;" valign="bottom" width="149">
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;"><span style="color: black; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">35 182<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 15.5pt; mso-yfti-irow: 3;">
<td style="background: white; border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left: 1.5pt solid windowtext; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-top: none; height: 15.5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext 1.5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 98pt;" width="131">
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;"><span style="color: black; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">80 do 84<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="background: white; border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left: none; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-top: none; height: 15.5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 98pt;" width="131">
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;"><span style="color: black; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">51,7<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="background: white; border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left: none; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-top: none; height: 15.5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 116pt;" width="155">
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;"><span style="color: black; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">811 370<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left: none; border-right: 1.5pt solid windowtext; border-top: none; height: 15.5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext 1.5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 112pt;" valign="bottom" width="149">
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;"><span style="color: black; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">41 942<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 15.5pt; mso-yfti-irow: 4;">
<td style="background: white; border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left: 1.5pt solid windowtext; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-top: none; height: 15.5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext 1.5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 98pt;" width="131">
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;"><span style="color: black; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">85 do 89<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="background: white; border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left: none; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-top: none; height: 15.5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 98pt;" width="131">
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;"><span style="color: black; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">93,6<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="background: white; border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left: none; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-top: none; height: 15.5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 116pt;" width="155">
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;"><span style="color: black; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">517 710<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left: none; border-right: 1.5pt solid windowtext; border-top: none; height: 15.5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext 1.5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 112pt;" valign="bottom" width="149">
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;"><span style="color: black; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">48 460<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 15.5pt; mso-yfti-irow: 5;">
<td style="background: white; border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left: 1.5pt solid windowtext; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-top: none; height: 15.5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext 1.5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 98pt;" width="131">
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;"><span style="color: black; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">Preko 90<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="background: white; border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left: none; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-top: none; height: 15.5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 98pt;" width="131">
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;"><span style="color: black; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">179,9<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="background: white; border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left: none; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-top: none; height: 15.5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 116pt;" width="155">
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;"><span style="color: black; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">334 586<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left: none; border-right: 1.5pt solid windowtext; border-top: none; height: 15.5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext 1.5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 112pt;" valign="bottom" width="149">
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;"><span style="color: black; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">60 207<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 16pt; mso-yfti-irow: 6;">
<td style="background: white; border-bottom: 1.5pt solid windowtext; border-left: 1.5pt solid windowtext; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-top: none; height: 16pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext 1.5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext 1.5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 98pt;" width="131">
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;"><span style="color: black; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">Ukupno<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="background: white; border-bottom: 1.5pt solid windowtext; border-left: none; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-top: none; height: 16pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext 1.5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 98pt;" width="131">
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;"><span style="color: black; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">46,6<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: 1.5pt solid windowtext; border-left: none; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-top: none; height: 16pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext 1.5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 116pt;" valign="bottom" width="155">
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;"><span style="color: black; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">4 668 591<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: 1.5pt solid windowtext; border-left: none; border-right: 1.5pt solid windowtext; border-top: none; height: 16pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 112pt;" valign="bottom" width="149">
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;"><span style="color: black; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">217 441<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 43.5pt; mso-yfti-irow: 7; mso-yfti-lastrow: yes;">
<td colspan="4" style="background: white; border: none; height: 43.5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext 1.5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 424pt;" width="565">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="color: black; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">Izvori: <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l1 level1 lfo2; text-indent: -18pt;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="color: black; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-color-alt: windowtext; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">1.<span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="color: black; mso-color-alt: windowtext;"><a href="https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1710000501">Population
estimates on July 1st, by age and sex (statcan.gc.ca)</a></span><span style="color: black; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;"> <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l1 level1 lfo2; text-indent: -18pt;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="color: black; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-color-alt: windowtext; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">2.<span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="color: black; mso-color-alt: windowtext;"><a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/444903/number-of-deaths-in-canada-by-age-group/"><span style="color: blue;">Deaths in Canada, by age group 2020 | Statista</span></a></span><span style="color: black; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="sr-Latn-BA" style="mso-ansi-language: #181A;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="sr-Latn-BA" style="mso-ansi-language: #181A;">Podaci
za 2021. godinu će pokazati da li je bilo značajnijeg povećanja u ukupnoj
smrtnosti nakon 1. srpnja 2020, ali zasad tog povećenje nema. Ipak, poanta je
da je smrtnost ljudi u toj starosnoj grupi i bez koronavirusa prilično velika.
4,6% ljudi starijih od 70 neće dočekati sljedeću godinu čak i ako se ne zaraze
koronavirusom. CDC procjenjuje da 5,4% ljudi u istoj toj dobnoj grupi neće
dočekati sljedeću godinu ako se zaraze koronavirusom. </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="sr-Latn-BA" style="mso-ansi-language: #181A;">Možemo
mi ovo izlistavanje statistika nazvati bešćutnim, ali te statistike neće
nestati ako o njima prestanemo govoriti. One i dalje objektivno postoje. Dalje,
prava slika rizika se može dobiti samo usporedbom relevantnih brojeva. Da li je
5,4% (ili koliko će već ukupna smrtnost biti u 2021.) puno u uspodedbi sa 4,6%
je na svakome od vas ponaosob da ocijenite. Nekome je puno, a nekome nije i to
je sasvim u redu, ali dok ne pogledamo u relevantne brojeve, tu ocjenu ne
možemo praviti. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>Predrag Rajsichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00301941050662222192noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8574042803645542600.post-90235865134483828742019-02-06T07:19:00.001-05:002019-02-06T07:19:36.759-05:00Zašto mislim da protesti neće ništa značajno promijenitiNikola Kojo onomad kaže da će otići iz Srbije ako ovi protesti ne promijene
sistem (ma šta to značilo). Takođe kaže da ne može da shvati političko
opredjeljenje Mikija Manojlovića. Tonom je sugerisao da je to Mikijevo
opredjeljenje simptom njegovog moralnog pada pa čak možda i staračke
senilnosti.<br />
<br />
Oba ova stava mi sugerišu da, ako Kojo predstavlja
proteste, on ne nudi ništa suštinski novo. Ko ima malo duže sjećanje,
pamti kako je i Vuk Drašković govorio nešto o posljednjoj šansi da <span class="text_exposed_show">se
nešto promijeni, a ako do promjene ne dođe, onda je to potpuni kolaps
Srbije. Sjećamo se i DOS-a i njihovih gotovo identičnih vapaja. Dakle,
nudi se standardna priča gdje stojimo pred bezdanom koji će nas
progutati ako nešto ne promijenimo. Ja sam iz Srbije otišao nakon pada
Miloševića sa jednakim entuzijazmom kojim bih otišao i prije njegovog
pada, dakle pomiješanih emocija. Niti sam prije njegovog pada htio otići
zbog njega, niti mi se želja za odlaskom promijenila poslije 5.
oktobra. Uvijek postoji sutra i uvijek se stvari mogu promijeniti. "Life
is long and things change."</span><br />
<div class="text_exposed_show">
<br />
Drugo, mene baš zanima kako Miki Manojlović razmišlja i, da sam bio na
Kojinom mjestu, vjerovatno bih rekao nešto tipa: "Nemam pojma zašto je
Miki podržao vlast, ali volio bih gostovati u istoj emisiji ako ga
pozovete pa da o tome popričamo. Nema smisla da ja tu nešto sam
spekulišem." Ali jok, Kojo je poput uvrijeđene snaše iz duše pustio
svoje razočaranje Mikijem. Opet, tipična reakcija u proteklih 30 godina
na političko neistomišlje. Dakle, Kojo nam nije ponudio ništa suštinski
novo u odnosu na ono što već imamo.<br />
<br />
Protiv sistema se ne protestuje samo šetnjom. Protiv sistema se
protestuje i tako što klincu koji baci papir od bureka na ulicu kažemo
da to nije u redu i kada bahatom vozaču pokažemo da nam se njegovo
ponašanje gadi, kada jasno pokažemo da ne odobravamo korupciju, čak i
kad nama ide u prilog, kada odbijemo diskutovati o političkim
ubjeđenjima Mikija Manojlovića čak onda kad nam to ide u prilog. Imam
osjećaj da će i poslije ovih protesta sve biti isto jer nedovoljan broj
ljudi, uz to što želi mijenjati sistem, želi mijenjati i sebe.<br />
<br />
</div>
Predrag Rajsichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00301941050662222192noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8574042803645542600.post-8813675448817415422019-01-28T11:19:00.002-05:002019-01-28T18:16:41.817-05:00Barry Cullen v. Rajsic: When Warranty is Just Not EnoughThe image below is related to a Google review posted <a href="https://www.google.com/maps/contrib/111344577455283605694/place/ChIJh_SswSuQK4gRPVDwBkjUQ8o/@44.1363202,-30.0026416,3z/data=!4m6!1m5!8m4!1e1!2s111344577455283605694!3m1!1e1?hl=en-CA">here</a>.
It may be of interest to people dealing with car repair warranties. Usually, I don't discuss individual businesses, but this infuriating experience warrants an exception. If you are interested in the details, please read the <a href="https://www.google.com/maps/contrib/111344577455283605694/place/ChIJh_SswSuQK4gRPVDwBkjUQ8o/@44.1363202,-30.0026416,3z/data=!4m6!1m5!8m4!1e1!2s111344577455283605694!3m1!1e1?hl=en-CA" target="_blank">review</a> first, as it comes chronologically before the correspondence in the image below. <a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg__iIhyphenhyphenQZGf2JltH3KYP4Os6e49AZvUsfFSkGh2NyDeRi1PAvzgFVOvyTKyIS47KfOHUK7WfTRuxwBy9VGJbeRDL16Uq6tZq9QXQFfGBZAwto_5YHmcSSDEq-LjSLnhBmAYdejBZnqdsav/s1600/Barry+Cullen+Rajsic.png" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" data-original-height="1600" data-original-width="676" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg__iIhyphenhyphenQZGf2JltH3KYP4Os6e49AZvUsfFSkGh2NyDeRi1PAvzgFVOvyTKyIS47KfOHUK7WfTRuxwBy9VGJbeRDL16Uq6tZq9QXQFfGBZAwto_5YHmcSSDEq-LjSLnhBmAYdejBZnqdsav/s1600/Barry+Cullen+Rajsic.png" /></a>Predrag Rajsichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00301941050662222192noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8574042803645542600.post-67765639071178621412017-11-28T10:28:00.001-05:002017-11-28T10:33:01.900-05:00Da li Hrvatskoj treba Jugoslavija da bi surađivala sa bivšim jugoslavenskim republikama? <span class="_5yl5">Često čujemo priče o ekonomskoj suradnji između jugoslavenskih republika prije raspada SFRJ. Implicitno se nameće utisak da nam je za suradnju bila potrebna zajednička država, da ta suradnja ne bi mogla da se ostvari u nekom drgom političkom ustrojstvu. To me je navelo na sljedeći mini prijekt. Cilj mi je da nađem neku smislenu mjernu jedinicu za razinu ekonomske suradnje između bivših jugoslavenskih republika sada, kad više nisu u zajedničkoj državi. </span><br />
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<span class="_5yl5">Našao sam divnu bazu podataka - Državni zavod za statistiku Republike Hrvatske. Ova baza podataka daje detaljne brojčane informacije o trgovinskoj razmjeni Hrvatske sa svim partmerima u svijetu, uključujuči i zemlje bivše Jugoslavije. Prije nego što predstavim neka mjerenja razine ekonomske suradnje između Hrvatske i zemalja bivše Jugoslavije, da podijelim nekoliko detalja koji su me iznenadili pa će možda i vas. </span><br />
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<span class="_5yl5">Od preko 130 zemalja svijeta sa kojima Hrvatska ima trgovinske odnose, tri bivše jugoslavenske republike su među top pet uvoznika proizvoda iz Hrvatske u 2016-oj. Četvrtina ukupnog hrvatskog izvoza ide u ove tri zemlje. 16% hrvatskog uvoza dolazi iz ove tri zemlje. Te tri zemlje su Slovenija, Bosna i Hercegovina i Srbija. </span><br />
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<span class="_5yl5">Vrijednost hrvatskog uvoza iz Kine je pribižna vrijednosti uvoza iz Srbije. Kao vanjskotrgovinski partmer, Srbija je ispred Francuske, Španjolske, Švedske, Velike Britanije, Švicarske. Bosna i Hercegovina je još važniji partner nego Srbija. Hrvatska sa Bosnom i Hercegovinom trguje duplo više nego sa Srbijom, a sa Srbijom trguje više nego sa Rusijom ili bilo kojom od gore nabrojanaih europsih zemalja ponaosob. </span><br />
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<span class="_5yl5">Od bivših jugoslavenskih zemalja, Slovenija je naš najveći partner. U prošloj godini 12% hrvatskog izvoza je išlo u Sloveniju, oko 10% u Bosnu i Hercegovinu i oko 5% u Srbiju. </span><br />
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<span class="_5yl5">Ne samo da je udio bivših jugoslavenskih zemalja, posebice Slovenije, Bosne i Hercegovine i Srbije u hrvatskoj vanjskoj trgovini značajan nego se on vremenom i povećava. Pogledajmo.</span><br />
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<span class="_5yl5">Kad se radi o izvozu u zemlje bivše Jugoslavije, on je od 2011. porastao sa nešto više od 2,5 milijardi eura godišnje do 3,5 milijardi eura u 2016-oj. Uglavnom smo izvozili više nego što smo uvozili, ali 2013. i 2015. uvoz iz zemalja bivše Jugoslavije je bio veći nego izvoz. Sve u svemu, ne može se reći da smo jedni drugima nepotrebni. Da bismo ove brojeve stavili u neku perspektivu, 3,5 milijardi eura je oko 10% bruto domaćeg proizvoda Srbije u 2016-oj. </span><br />
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" /><br />
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<span class="_5yl5">Ako bismo sadašnji hrvatski izvoz u zemlje regiona usporedili sa njenom razmjenom sa jugoslavenskim republikama za vrijeme Jugoslavije, vidimo da on danas nije dostigao vrijednost onoga iz osamdesetih, koji je bio oko 3,7 milijardi ondašnjih dolara godišnje, što bi odgovaralo vrijednosti od oko 9,1 milijardi dolara danas ili oko 7,7 milijardi eura. Sadašnji izvoz u zemlje regiona je i dalje upola manji od onoga za vrijeme bivše Jugoslavije, ali je on u trendu porasta. S druge strane, dosta robne razmjene unutar bivše Jugoslavije je bilo isforsirano restrikcijama na vanjsku trgovinu i unutrašnjim političkim odlukama. Smanjenjem vanskotrgovinskih restrikcija, za očekivati je da bi se unutarnja trgovina smanjila bez obzira da li smo ili nismo u zajedničkoj državi. </span><br />
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<span class="_5yl5">Ukupna robna razmjena, koja se računa kao zbroj uvoza i izvoza, mjeri stupanj uzajamne otvorenosti Hrvatske i njenih trgovinskih partnera u regionu. Tu vidimo da ovo mjerilo uzajamne otvorenosi također bilježi rast u proteklih šest godina. Ukupna razmjena se povećala sa nešto preko 4,5 milijardi eura na skoro 7 milijardi eura, u prosjeku 8,7% godišnje. Dakle, i ovdje vidimo kretanje ka daljem ekonomskom zbližavanju bez postojanja zajedničke države. </span><br />
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<span class="_5yl5"><img alt="" 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" 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<span class="_5yl5">Na kraju, pitamo se koliko je trgovina sa zemljama bivše Jugoslavije Hrvatskoj važna u odnosu na trgovinu sa ostalim zemljama u svijetu i može li se ovdje zamijetiti kakav trend. Zato sam izrazio robnu razmjenu sa zemljama bivše Jugosalvije kao postotak ukupne robne razmjene Hrvatske sa svijetom. Tu vidimo da trenutno više od jedne petine (21,3%) robne razmjene Hrvatske sa svijetom odlazi na zemlje bivše Jugoslavije. Ne samo to nego ovaj postotak pokazuje blagu tendenciju rasta. U 2011-oj je iznosio samo 17,6% da bi prošle godine premašio 21%.</span><br />
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W+//dZ6lwIAuOfbb7/VcsOu3qbFkHhE8Fn0wAy9LviqEgDAehC4YfCF1f2nBPs/by8aBpKIvvCaXjL4AqtoTgkAAE4G//YNAABCcAMAAITgBgAACMENAAAQghsAACAENwAAQAhuAACAENwAAAAhuAEAAEJwAwAAhOAGAAAIwQ0AABCCGwAAIAQ3AABACG4AAIAQ3AAAACG4AQAAQnADAACE4AYAAAjBDQAAEIIbAAAgBDcAAEAIbgAAgBDcAAAAIbgBAABCcAMAAITgBgAACMENAAAQghsAACAENwAAQAhuAACAENwAXvnJax/+6JW/La8vvvyPdRSA1YEbwCvf//G7//Xff15eV188sY6SRsV8P3ntQ+sc4BLcAF45ezeopPv+j9+1zgEuwQ3gFdyAG+B44AbwCm7ADXA8cAN4BTfgBjgeuAG8ghtww8r5+NOvl3+b4I0/PjRpPG4Ar+AG3LBy7n/8ePkR/NkbH5k0HjeAV3ADblg5uAHAANyAG1YObgAwADfghpWDGwAMwA24YeXgBgADcANuWDm4AcAA3IAbVg5uADAAN+CGlYMbAAzADbhh5Zy/G5pqc8O23t0s2dXb20VVEzw5fihc0v29X7Wp9hsGkIIbcMPKOXc37OrqZuTe1dub8Xz/P21TbcbDevxQtGRXb6um7f7T7uotZoAZ4AbcsHLO3Q09/eA+vIAYjuzxQ8klvRswA8wFN+CGlXMxbujG8YVu6OaUek0AzAA34IaVcyFu6Af5pW4YPLlqug8zphzxzTffPAQY8Oydd1RGz/sffGIdJY1KumfvvGOd43L5w92Plh/BO7+6r9uqr776StMNww8WdNwwmlOanlp6+vTpNcCA515qVEbPf3z6L+soaVTSPfdSY53jcrn3wWfLj+BPX3ug26rvvvtOyw27ejv+xHnZZ9EDM/S64KtKcCjMKUmKOSVDzn1Oaf8N1sHXWMNvtQ70EX/hNblk8AVW0ZwSQABuwA0r59zdALBKcANuWDm4AcAA3IAbVg5uADAAN3h3wxdf/mf5zym/8ubfrXNkwQ0ABuAG7264+uLJ8oA/euVv1jmy4AYAA3ADbsANxwM3gFdwA27ADccDN4BXcANuwA3HAzeAV3ADbsANxwM3gFdwA27ADccDN4BXcANuwA3HAzeAV3ADbsANxwM3gFdwA27ADccDN4BXcANuwA3HAzeAV3ADbsANxwM3gFdwA27ADccDN5wtr7z59+U3Mvv406+tc2TBDbgBNxwP3HC2/OiVvy3vl/c/fmydIwtuwA244XjghrMFN+AG3GALboA1ghtwA26wBTfAGsENuAE32IIbYI3gBtyAG2zBDbBGcANuwA224AaXvPHHh8u/4vmXB/9nnSMLbsANuMEW3OCSn73x0fLD9ru/fGadIwtuEBZusAI3SAo3nBrcICncYIhKOtxgCG5wCW6QFG4wRCUdbjAEN7gEN0gKNxiikg43GIIbXIIbJIUbDFFJhxsMwQ0uwQ2Swg2GqKTDDYbgBpfgBknhBkNU0uEGQ3CDS3CDpHCDISrpcIMhuMEluEFSuMEQlXS4wRDc4BLcICncYIhKOtxgCG5wCW6QFG4wRCUdbjAEN7gEN0gKNxiikg43GIIbXIIbJIUbDFFJhxsMwQ0uwQ2Swg2GqKTDDYbgBpfgBknhBkNU0uEGQ3CDS3CDpHCDISrpcIMhuMEluEFSuMEQlXS4wRDc4BLcICncYIhKOtxgCG5wCW6QFG4wRCUdbjAEN7gEN0gKNxiikg43GIIbXIIbJIUbDFFJhxsMwQ0uwQ2Swg2GqKTDDYbgBpfgBknhBkNU0uEGQ3CDS3CDpHCDISrpcIMhl+CGXb3dbLb17vbPptp09AuHT91sNptN1aSXdH93j7dNFW3l+OAGSeEGQ1TS4QZDzt4NTbXZ1k29HbohN5jv6u3tmN9UN96IluzqbdW03X/a3XDDJwQ3SAo3GKKSDjcYcvZuaNs2GMKzbhg+6+b/k0t6N1iZATfgBtxgDW6QlDc3ZKaUJG7o5pR6TZiAGySFGwxRSYcbDLlAN+zpJo5Sz8q6YfDkquk8M+WI6+vrD1V54dX3lh+2X//mr7qtUuT5l+8tD/jW2+9b58jyzIt3VUbPu+8+sI6SRiXdMy/etc6R5e67D5YHfP7le9Y5srz19vvLA77w6nu6rXr8WHTCt9ANbVONRvUD3DCaUzKYWuK6QVJcNxiiko7rBkMu+LphV2+DWSXBZ9Hd80afRJ/+q0q4QVK4wRCVdLjBkLN3w+Abq5vNzbn+8M+2HUli/+z9YJ9cMvgCq2hOSR3cICncYIhKOtxgyNm74TzBDZLCDYaopMMNhuAGl+AGSeEGQ1TS4QZDcINLcIOkcIMhKulwgyG4wSW4QVK4wRCVdLjBENzgEtwgKdxgiEo63GAIbnAJbpAUbjBEJR1uMAQ3uAQ3SAo3GKKSDjcYghtcghskhRsMUUmHGwzBDS7BDZLCDYaopMMNhuAGl+AGSeEGQ1TS4QZDcINLcIOkcIMhKulwgyG4wSW4QVK4wRCVdLjBENzgEtwgKdxgiEo63GAIbnAJbpAUbjBEJR1uMAQ3uAQ3SAo3GKKSDjcYghtcghskhRsMUUmHGwzBDS7BDZLCDYaopMMNhuAGl+AGSeEGQ1TS4QZDcINLcIOkcIMhKulwgyG4wSW4QVK4wRCVdLjBENzgEtwgKdxgiEo63GAIbnAJbpAUbjBEJR1uMAQ3uAQ3SAo3GKKSDjcYghtcghskhRsMUUmHGwzBDS7BDZLCDYaopMMNhuAGl+AGSeEGQ1TS4QZDcINLcIOkcIMhKulwgyG4wSW4QVK4wRCVdLjBENzgEtwgKdxgiEo63GAIbnAJbpAUbjBEJR1uMAQ3uAQ3SAo3GKKSDjcYghtcghskhRsMUUmHGwzBDS7BDZLCDYaopMMNhuAGl+AGSeEGQ1TS4QZDcINLcIOkcIMhKulwgyG4wSW4QVK4wRCVdLjBENzgEtwgKdxgiEo63GAIbnAJbpAUbjBEJR1uMAQ3uAQ3SAo3GKKSDjcYghtcghskhRsMUUmHGwzBDS7BDZLCDYaopMMNhuAGl+AGSeEGQ1TS4QZDcINLcIOkcIMhKulwgyG4wSW4QVK4wRCVdLjBENzgEtwgKdxgiEo63GAIbnAJbpAUbjBEJR1uMOQS3LCrt5vNtt6N/t5sNptN1aSeOnooXNL9vV+1qQabPhW4QVK4wRCVdLjBkLN3Q1NttnVTb/cD+K7e3g7sTbUZD+vxQ9GSXb2tmrb7T7sbbPiU4AZJ4QZDVNLhBkPO3g1t246G8N1YE8ORPX4ouaR3g5UZcANuwA3W4AZJXZAbujmlXhMm4AZJ4QZDVNLhBkNww4FuGDy5atqmSn9ucWxwg6RwgyEq6XCDIbhhlhtGc0rTU0vX19cfqvLCq+8tP2y//s1fdVulyPMv31se8K2337fOkeWZF++qjJ53331gHSWNSrpnXrxrnSPL3XcfLA/4/Mv3rHNkeevt95cHfOHV93Rb9fix6IRvjhsWfhY9MEO/2dN/VYnrBklx3WCISjquGww5++uG21mf4ddQ94tuR/Rdve3+N3wos2TwBVbmlI4CbhAWbrACN0hqzW44T3CDpHCDISrpcIMhuMEluEFSuMEQlXS4wRDc4BLcICncYIhKOtxgCG5wCW6QFG4wRCUdbjAEN7gEN0gKNxiikg43GIIbXIIbJIUbDFFJhxsMwQ0uwQ2Swg2GqKTDDYbgBpfgBknhBkNU0uEGQ3CDS3CDpHCDISrpcIMhuMEluEFSuMEQlXS4wRDc4BLcICncYIhKOtxgCG5wCW6QFG4wRCUdbjAEN7gEN0gKNxiikg43GIIbXIIbJIUbDFFJhxsMwQ0uwQ2Swg2GqKTDDYbgBpfgBknhBkNU0uEGQ3CDS3CDpHCDISrpcIMhuMEluEFSuMEQlXS4wRDc4BLcICncYIhKOtxgCG5wCW6QFG4wRCUdbjAEN7gEN0gKNxiikg43GIIbXIIbJIUbDFFJhxsMwQ0uwQ2Swg2GqKTDDYbgBpfgBknhBkNU0uEGQ3CDS3CDpHCDISrpcIMhuMEluEFSuMEQlXS4wRDc4BLcICncYIhKOtxgCG5wCW6QFG4wRCUdbjAEN7gEN0gKNxiikg43GIIbXIIbJIUbDFFJhxsMwQ0uwQ2Swg2GqKTDDYbgBpfgBknhBkNU0uEGQ3CDS3CDpHCDISrpcIMhuMEluEFSuMEQlXS4wRDc4BLcICncYIhKOtxgCG5wCW6QFG4wRCUdbjAEN7gEN0gKNxiikg43GIIbXIIbJIUbDFFJhxsMwQ0uwQ2Swg2GqKTDDYbgBpfgBknhBkNU0uEGQ3CDS3CDpHCDISrpcIMhuMEluEFSuMEQlXS4wRDc4BLcICncYIhKOtxgCG5wCW6QFG4wRCUdbjAEN7gEN0gKNxiikg43GIIbXIIbJIUbDFFJhxsMwQ0uwQ2Swg2GqKTDDYZcoBuaatOxrXfjx3b19vahqkkv6f7uHm+bKtrK8cENksINhqikww2GXKQbcoP5rt7ejvlNdeONaMmu3lZN2/2n3dVbAzPgBtyAG6zBDZI6EzcMB/qb/08u6d1gZQbcgBtwgzW4QVLe3JCZUpK4oZtT6jVhAm6QFG4wRCUdbjDkAt2wp5s46hC5YfDkquk8I3DEtSo/fe3B8sP22z8/1G2VIj/8xf3lAe998Jl1jizPvdSojJ7/+PRf1lHSqKR77qXGOkeWf3z6r+UBf/iL+9Y5stz74LPlAX/62gPdVj19+lQyuC/9nlJTjUb1A9wwmlOanlq6vr5+qMqdXykMnf/zu//VbZUiP/i5wmn1H+5+ZJ0jy7N33lEZPe9/8Il1lDQq6Z698451jiz3P/hkecAf/Pxd6xxZ/nBXYXLizq/u67bqyy+/lIzty9ywq7fBrJLgs+iBGXpdnP6rSswpicZN5pTsUEnHnJIhFzen1H8ndT8VNJDE/rOI/WCfXDL4Aqt0TkkX3CAp3GCISjrcYMjFueE8wA2Swg2GqKTDDYbgBpfgBknhBkNU0uEGQ3CDS3CDpHCDISrpcIMhuMEluEFSuMEQlXS4wRDc4BLcICncYIhKOtxgCG5wCW6QFG4wRCUdbjAEN7gEN0gKNxiikg43GIIbXIIbJIUbDFFJhxsMwQ0uwQ2Swg2GqKTDDYbgBpfgBknhBkNU0uEGQ3CDS3CDpHCDISrpcIMhuMEluEFSuMEQlXS4wRDc4BLcICncYIhKOtxgCG5wCW6QFG4wRCUdbjAEN7gEN0gKNxiikg43GIIbXIIbJIUbDFFJhxsMwQ0uwQ2Swg2GqKTDDYbgBpfgBknhBkNU0uEGQ3CDS3CDpHCDISrpcIMhuMEluEFSuMEQlXS4wRDc4BLcICncYIhKOtxgCG5wCW6QFG4wRCUdbjAEN7gEN0gKNxiikg43GIIbXIIbJIUbDFFJhxsMwQ0uwQ2Swg2GqKTDDYbgBpfgBknhBkNU0uEGQ3CDS3CDpHCDISrpcIMhuMEluEFSuMEQlXS4wRDc4BLcICncYIhKOtxgCG5wCW6QFG4wRCUdbjAEN7gEN0gKNxiikg43GIIbXIIbJIUbDFFJhxsMwQ0uwQ2Swg2GqKTDDYbgBpfgBknhBkNU0uEGQ3CDS3CDpHCDISrpcIMhuMEluEFSuMEQlXS4wRDc4BLcICncYIhKOtxgCG5wCW6QFG4wRCUdbjAEN7gEN0gKNxiikg43GIIbXIIbJIUbDFFJhxsMwQ0uwQ2Swg2GqKTDDYbgBpfgBknhBkNU0uEGQ3CDS3CDpHCDISrpcIMhuMEluEFSuMEQlXS4wRDc4BLcICncYIhKOtxgCG5wCW6QFG4wRCUdbjAEN7gEN0gKNxiikg43GHKJbtjV280NVTP5ULik+3u/alNt693CIAeDGySFGwxRSYcbDLk8N+zq7e3A3lSb8bAePxQt2dXbqmm7/7S7emtgBtyAG3CDNbhBUp7cMBzNg5E9fm5Bb/sAAALQSURBVCi5pHeDlRlwA27ADdbgBkldkBu6OaVeEybgBknhBkNU0uEGQ3DDgW4YPLlq2qZKf24R8PTp02tVfvunT15+/f2F9d6DK91WKfL67z9eHvCjf35hnSPLL9/8cHnAl19//+rzf1tHSaOS7pdvfmidI8vV5/9eHvD1339snSPLR//8YnnA3/7pE91Wfffdd+t2w2hOaXpq6ZtvvnkIAADL+Oqrr47lhoWfRQ/M0OvC5KtKAACQZOZ3WG8ngjbdYL+rt93/hg9llgy+wCqaUwIAgJNxuf/2DQAAcuAGAAAIwQ0AABCCGwAAIAQ3AABACG4AAIAQ3AAAACG4AQAAQi7aDfE/ykv9LsWu3m7G//o7XrJS5gWM11otBOyXBWHcdNJ5GfcrOQg59yAa99MLdsOurvp/1N3dwCO8vUdTbbZ1M7zbU7xkrcwLGK+1WgiY7qI3D2/r2sONaGa/DR1ka9t2dkD73nnBbujpf3Qoe1vA+KTMS9ds2zkBB2t5YFZATwfxwIA3N6XxM362bXtgRmfZ2rY9LOAKOidu6A/D2bphRsDcwnVyYMDuWn3dFw1DDgvY3cjS1/h5WMZ+TslNxoMCDubMrDoqbugPyJm6YVZATwnnBRzdIHLdHBaw/19Pbph7EN1c3R4YcHA7UquEl+6G4L7h5+eGeQG9vOHa2UewW3f91w4HBuw/5jQ96TwMDmL4xyCV1WBzyW6IzhsTnxF1y126YV5AN6fTMwM2lfUJmZwFXbT1ct2wLKOD3jorYP8csw+lL9gNoxm9/usC40nMeNpvBROBQuYFTK21UhYfwVUfvnZ2wH71VR++G2ZlHF4cnetB7DMaJbxgNwAAQAbcAAAAIbgBAABCcAMAAITgBgAACMENAAAQghsAACAENwAAQAhuAACAENwAAAAht264urq6BgAAuL6+vr7+/PPPr66uvvcQAABgwNdff/3/oNZXjxcIz8sAAAAASUVORK5CYIIA" /></span><br />
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<span class="_5yl5">Šta se iz ovoga da zaključiti? Zasigurno ne da ovi brojevi znače da Hrvatska treba da se uključi u neku novu Jugoslaviju. Naprotiv, što ovdje možemo vidjeti da narodi bivše Jugoslavije mogu surađivati i bez zajedničke države. Ne samo da mogu surađivati nego je ta suradnja neminovna posljedica geografske blizine i komparativnih prednosti. Jedino što je potrebno je da svaka od tih država smanji uplitanje državnog aparata u međunarodnu trgovinu i ljudi će sami naći načina da surađuju. Nije im potreban centralni planer da im kaže da trebaju jedni drugima pomagati. Evo, brojevi pokazuju da oni to već i rade. </span><br />
<span class="_5yl5"><br /></span>Predrag Rajsichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00301941050662222192noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8574042803645542600.post-20602169004527884292017-09-10T10:15:00.000-04:002017-09-10T10:22:33.147-04:00Hej tirani, nismo ni lijeni ni glupi!Poslije svake prirodne katastrofe neizbježno se jave oni koji tvrde da postoji sreća u nesreći jer, tobože, elementarne nepogode poput uragana, poplava i potresa mogu da "stimuliraju ekonomiju". Logičku grešku kod ove ideje još prije više od 150 godina razotkrio je Frederic Bastiat. Usprkos tome, nove verzije ove teze preživljavaju i pomaljaju svoje ružno lice poslije svake veće prirodne, a ponekad i ljudskom rukom prouzrokovane katastrofe.<br />
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Standardna kritika teze da nas katastrofe mogu učiniti bogatijima koristi analogiju razbijenog prozora. Jest, točno je da ako namjerno razbijemo izlog neke trgovine, to će stvoriti posao za stakloresca koji će zaraditi šest franaka nakon što popravi izlog. Točno je da je dobro za stakloresca da zaradi, ali bi još bolje bilo da prozor nije ni razbijen. Tada bi vlasnik trgovine, umjesto da plaća popravljanje izloga, mogao tih šest franaka potrošiti na nove cipele ili novu knjigu ili novo odijelo. Dakle, staklorezac se okoristio o tršku vlasnika izloga.<br />
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Ako logiku destrukcije primijenimo na masovnoj skali, posljedica je da će društvo svoja sredstva usmjeriti ka obnovi razorenog umjesto ka proizvodnji novih dobara. Umjesto da naše društvo usmjeri resurse ka proizvodnji knjiga, cipela ili odijela, ono iste te resurse koristi za obnovu porušenih objekata.<br />
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Bastiat je ukazivao da postoji viđeno, ali i neviđeno. Neviđeno je u ovom slučaju sve ono čega se odričemo radi obnove porušenog. To je oportunitetni trošak. Svaki put kad se odlučimo da iskoristimo resurse na jedan način, ti isti resursi se ne mogu iskorititi za nešto drugo. Svaki put kad odlučimo da razbijemo nešto, resursi koji se moraju iskoristiti za obnovu razbijenog neće moći da se iskoriste za proizvodnju nekih drugih proizvoda. Dakle, svaki put kad se odlučimo da razbijemo nešto, odričemo se nečega radi obnove porušenog. <br />
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Ovo nam jasno govori da je konačni učinak politike razbijanja gubitak za društvo. Zašto onda i danas, nakon 150 godina, ova pogreška nastavlja da živi i često se pojavljuju ekonomisti koji tvrde da za ekonomiju može biti dobro ako uragan razori čitave grdove? Uzimajući u obzir logiku Bastiatove kritike razaranja, slijedi da ovi ekonomisti misle da je vrijednost onoga čega se odričemo ravna nuli i da je ljudima potrebno razaranje da ih trgne iz letargije pa da prestanu da budu "nezaposleni" i počnu da miješaju beton umjesto što čitaju knjige.<br />
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Da pojasnim. Zamislite da sam ja odlučio da ne radim petkom i da provedem to vrijeme sa djecom i čitajući knjige. Zarađujem dovoljno da svaki petak provedem "nezaposlen". Neće biti raskošno, ali baš se veselim vremenu provedenom s djecom i vremenu koje ću posvetiti sebi. To je potprilike 50 dana provedenih kod kuće, a ne na poslu. Uzmimo da zarađujem 250 dolara dnevno. Odlukom da ne radim 50 dana sam se odrekao zarade od oko 12.500 dolara. Imajući u vidu Bastiatovu logiku, znamo da je meni vrijeme provedeno sa djecom i čitajući knjige vrijedno najmanje 12.500 dolara jer toliko zarade sam spreman se odreći radi toga.<br />
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Ali, ova vrijednost moga vremena provedenog se djecom nije zabilježena u BDP-a Kanade. Ona se tamo računa kao nula. Ako bismo gledali samo na brojeve koji postoje u službenim knjigama, ispada da sam ja odlučio da ne radim petkom jer sam lijen. Kako drugačije objasniti nečiju odluku da se odrekne 12.500 dolara zarade. Ako je vrijednost vremena provedenog ne radeći nula onda jedini razlog zašto bih ja želio da se odreknem te zarade je što mrzim rad ili nisam dovoljno pametan da nađem nešto da radim petkom--ili sam lijen ili sam glup.<br />
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Zamislimo sad da uragan prođe mojim gradom i razbije prozore na mojoj kući. Sad mi je potrebno, recimo, 12.500 dolara da popravim prozore. Budući da se radi o važnom popravku, spreman sam da godinu dana radim petkom kako bih pokrio trošak popravke. Ovo će se u državnom BDP-u očitovati kao povećanje od 12.500 dolara. Činjenica da sam se ja odrekao vremena provedenog s djecom i u čitanju knjiga neće ući u tu računicu. Ispada da smo se obogatili za 12.500 dolara bez ikakvog troška. Oni koji su konzervativniji bi rekli da je šteta od uragana pokrivena dodatnim radom, ali bi često dodali da je bolje kad ljudi više rade pa je njima bolja situacija u kojima svi rade na obnovi nego kad poneko sjedi "nezaposlen".<br />
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Kako god okrenemo, pobornici ideje da je razaranje dobro za ekonomiju imaju u glavi tiransku ideju da sam ja ili lijen ili nedovoljno pametan da nađem neki plaćen posao i zbog toga vrijeme provodim kod kuće. Njima nije teško napraviti još jedan mali korak od prirodnih katastrofa do ljudskom rukom prouzrokovanih pa im nije problem ni razbiti prozor kad nema uragana da ga razbije. Njima i ratovi izgledaju kao sila koja će primorati lijene i glupe da se uhvate lopate. Njima često nije problem napraviti još jedan "mali" korak pa opravdavati upotrebu sile zakona da bi se "glupima" i "lijenima" naredilo da rade bilo što za bilo koju sumu novca. Mali je korak do masovnih radnih akcija, a onaj tko odbije da se uhvati lopate se onda etiketira ili kao lijen ili glup. A svi znamo da je lijenoga i glupoga opravdano prisliti na društveno-korisni rad. Predrag Rajsichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00301941050662222192noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8574042803645542600.post-28896820367993062702017-09-09T10:57:00.001-04:002017-09-09T11:03:10.395-04:00Facebook is rigged to feed your addiction<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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If you know how drug dealers work, you know that, the more frequently you ask them for drugs, the more frequently they will check if you want more drugs. Facebook does the same thing with its notifications. It gives you more notifications the more you check them.<br />
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You might think that this is logically impossible because the number of notifications you receive depends on the number of times people actually like, comment on your posts, photos or comments or when they tag you. This is only partially true. It is true that, if no one likes, comments or tags you in his posts or comments, you will not have any notifications. But, if someone does react to your posts, Facebook has different options for reporting on this. You may get just one notification which "folds" more notifications or you can get each of the folded notifications separately. For example, instead of a single notification "Jimmy and Johnny liked your photo", you may receive two notifications: "Jimmy liked your photo" and "Johnny liked your photo". Thus, Facebook can reduce the number of notifications that you will receive by folding more notifications into one.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjxGpDJNjC-OYZiW-8XXEQvMyN9aO7ejBfnnoqBLYc_qnbEYB8t3Z8n9TKPwN8afIfPwAHkBwR-qFwh5vxqTi5lKt1RY_kvrxS3nsnVaNU-4TPKFZQwyCO8RmHJSxpOZPY0wVkjODvjd65V/s1600/got_choice.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="799" data-original-width="1200" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjxGpDJNjC-OYZiW-8XXEQvMyN9aO7ejBfnnoqBLYc_qnbEYB8t3Z8n9TKPwN8afIfPwAHkBwR-qFwh5vxqTi5lKt1RY_kvrxS3nsnVaNU-4TPKFZQwyCO8RmHJSxpOZPY0wVkjODvjd65V/s320/got_choice.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
How do I know that Facebook gives you more notifications if you check them more frequently? I did an experiment. I stopped checking my notifications six months ago. I describe my reasoning <a href="http://predragrajsic.blogspot.ca/2017/03/why-i-stopped-checking-my-facebook.html" target="_blank">here</a>. What was the outcome of this experiment? Several thousand notifications by now? Nope. If you ever try to ignore Facebook <span class="highlightNode">notifications</span>, the number of your unchecked <span class="highlightNode">notifications</span>
(that little red number by the globe) will grow up to about 100 and
then it will oscillate between 90 and 100. So, it takes 100 unchecked <span class="highlightNode">notifications</span> for Facebook to give up bothering you with new <span class="highlightNode">notifications</span>. It "quits" at around 100 notifications. When the algorithm detects that you stopped checking your notifications, it starts folding new notifications into the old ones so that the total number doesn't exceed 100. Only for brief moments during these six months, my notifications exceeded 100 and then they returned to about 95.<br />
<br />
This means that the fact that you get new notifications every day depends on the fact that your are clicking on that little globe frequently. Once you bring the number of new notifications to zero, Facebook will be quick to tell you that someone liked your photo or replied to your comment or whatever. <br />
<br />
But, this is not the only way Facebook feeds your addiction by giving you more notifications if you ask for more. On a few occasions I did click on my notifications by mistake. After that I would maintain my policy of not checking the notification again for weeks. What happened then? The number of unchecked notifications climbs back up from 1 to about 100 in a few days. But, it climes faster in the beginning and then slows down. The first day of not checking, I would have accumulated about 30 <span class="highlightNode">notifications</span>.
The next day the would be about 55 notifications. The third day there was usually about 75. The next day the number climbs to about 85, and in the next days it stabilizes at 95 to 100. <br />
<div class="_5pbx userContent" data-ft="{"tn":"K"}" id="js_58s">
<br />
What this tells us is that Facebook is programmed to give you more <span class="highlightNode">notifications</span> if you check them frequently. Just like the dealer on the street, it is programmed to feed your addiction.</div>
Predrag Rajsichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00301941050662222192noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8574042803645542600.post-80177274058963214512017-09-02T09:12:00.002-04:002017-09-02T09:15:10.644-04:00Što to imaju Kanađani, a mi nemamo?Jedna od prvih stvari koje sam primijetio po dolasku u Kanadu je da
su Kanađani, tada sam mislio, lakovjerni poput male djece. I mnogi
"naši" su mi to potvrdili. Govorili su: "Vidiš kako su glupi. Možeš ih prevariti kako hoćeš." Pošto meni vrag ne da mira, prvo se zapitah kako
su oni to tako glupi, a mi došli kod njih živjeti. Nije bilo obrnuto--da su Kanađani bili zavidni nama "pametnim" Balkancima na superiornom
društvu koje smo stvorili pa dolaze živjeti kod nas. Odgovor <span class="text_exposed_show">koji
bi tipični "našijenac" na to imao bi bio otprilike: "Ma naše društvo je
bolje; mi smo bolji ljudi. Ovdje smo došli samo zbog novca." Čekaj, mi
smo tako dobri ljudi da smo spremni svega se odreći radi novca? Sva ta
navodna duhovna superiornost našeg zavičaja nam vrijedi oko 5000 dolara
mjesečno. Baš smo kvalitetni ljudi onda. </span><br />
<br />
<div class="text_exposed_show">
Naravno, nisam se zadovoljio ovim ofucanim "objašnjenjima" nego sam potražio bolja. Nisu oni
naivni ni glupi nego imaju više povjerenja u ljude oko sebe. Baš zbog
toga su i stvorili bogatije društvo nego mi Balkanci. Možemo mi da
krivimo i Turke i Austrougare i Tita i koga hoćemo, ali mi smo sami sebi
najveći neprijatelji. Svaki ugovor koji postoji između dva čovjeka jako
je skup ako je iza njega nepovjerenje. Ljudi koji zaziru jedni od
drugih malo će ugovora i napraviti među sobom. Propsperitet i napredak
društva ponajviše ovise o međusobnoj suradnji njegovih članova.
Kanađani ne troše svoju energiju na to da provjere da li će ih neko prevariti. Troše je na produktivne aktivnosti. Takvo ponašanje mogu da si
priušte baš zato što vjeruju jedni drugima. Da bi društvo išlo naprijed,
čovjek mora spustiti gard i prepustiti se milosti i nemilosti
bližnjega svoga. Naravno, i bližnji mora isto učiniti ako ćemo naprijed.<br />
<br />
Prva reakcija koju na ovo očekujem je da mi nismo ništa ni bolji ni lošiji od Kanađana nego je sustav takav da ne postoji povjerenje u taj "sustav". Prvo, slažem se da vjerovatno ne postoji bitna razlika u urođenoj sposobnosti da budemo dobri ili pametni između nas i Kanađana. Slažem se i da narod nema povjerenja u sustav tj. institucije, ali to i jeste dio moje teze. "Sustav" nije neka apstraktna mehanička pojava koja postoji van ljudi i njihove svijesti. Sistem je sačinjen od ljudi. Kanađani su provjeru vjerodostojnosti ugovora među ljudima u društvu povjerili trećim licima--odvjetnicima, zakonodavcima, inspekcijskim agencijama--zato što im vjeruju. To famozno povjerenje u institucije i pravnu državu kojih su našim političarima puna usta zavise od pogleda na svijet ljudi koji sačinjavaju te institucije i ljudi koji usluge tih institucija koriste. <br />
<br />
To ne znači da nitko nikad nikoga neće prevariti. I sami znamo da je to utopija, ali i previsok stupanj nepovjerenja prema drugim ljudima je poguban za društvo. Također bi aposlutno povjerenje u druge bilo pogubno za društvo. Svi znamo šta se desi kad mislimo da nije na nama da uopće preispitujemo ispravnost postupaka ljudi na vlasti. To je idealna podloga za tiraniju i totalitarne režime. Ali, i previsok stupanj nepovjerenja prema drugima vodi ka rasipanju dragocjenih resursa. Dakle, moja poanta je da su Kanađani došli bliže optimalnom stupnju povjerenja jedih prema drugima nego što smo to mi uspjeli. <br />
<br />
Sama podjela rada i specijalizacija, koji su baza tržišne ekonomije, ovise o međusobnom povjerenju. Standardni primjeri komparative prednosti iz ekonomskih udžbenika u kojima se jedan čovjek specijalizira u proizvodnji jednog proizvoda, a drugi čovjek u proizvodnji drugog proizvoda, zasniva se na međusobnom povjerenju. Ako se ja specijaliziram za proizvodnju, recimo, mlijeka, onda ovisim o drugim ljudima za sve svoje ostale potrebe. Dakle, moja odluka da ne buden "svaštar" i proizvodim sve što mi treba nego da to povjerim drugima ovisi o tome koliko ja vjerujem tim drugima da će mi, kad mi bude trebalo, te svoje proizvode staviti na raspolaganje, od kruha pa do popravljanja auta. Čovjek koji nikome ne vjeruje pokušava da u svemu bude samodovoljan, a to je jako neproduktivan sistem. <br />
<br />
Dakle, kad kažemo "ma neka samo svako radi svoj posao" ili "neka institucije rade svoj posao", implicitno podrazumijevamo da svako vjeruje drugima da će i oni raditi svoj posao. "Sistem" funkcionira dobro kad se ja usredotočim na svoj posao, a drugima ostavim da se usredotoče na svoj, kada ja ne trošim svoju energiju da im "držim svijeću" jer i za "držanje svijeće" ima tko čiji je to posao. </div>
Predrag Rajsichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00301941050662222192noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8574042803645542600.post-39373114526813984212017-08-30T14:21:00.000-04:002017-08-30T14:49:19.893-04:00Ne dozvolite da vam antitržišni mentalitet pojede budućnostNa samom početku studija u Kanadi, nepunih osam mjeseci nakon što sam u tu zemlju došao, napisao sam esej simptomatičnog naslova "Ne dozvolite da vam novac pojede dušu" u kojem sam kritizirao kandsku poljoprivredu jer je, kako sam tada mislio, usredotočena samo na profit, a u drugi plan stavlja tradicionalne vrijednosti kao što su obitelj, prijateljstvo i zajedništvo. Tu sam iznio niz antitržišnih teza koje mi iz ove perspektive djeluju naivno i djetinjasto, ali su mi sada dragocjene. Dragocjene su mi jer mi pomažu da razumijem antitržišni sentiment koji je vrlo zastupljen u Hrvatskoj.<br />
<br />
U čemu se taj antitržišni sentiment očituje? Očituje se ponajviše u svakodnevnom narativu. Zanimljiv mi je način na koji se na Balkanu govori o <span class="highlightNode">privatnom</span>
vlasništvu. Uz taj termin uvijek se nekako u svakodnevnom diskursu
povlači zadah nepravde. "Ma on ti je privatnik" se uglavnom koristi kao
moralna etiketa. Ono, "lako je njemu; (jer) on je privatnik". Ili "ma briga njega za nas; (jer) on je privatnik". Ili "ma to je kupio neki
privatnik; (pa zato) mi od toga nećemo imati nikakve koristi." <br />
<div class="_5pbx userContent" data-ft="{"tn":"K"}" id="js_81f">
To gledanje na tuđu korist kao na vlastitu štetu je vjerovatno jedna od
značajnijih barijera uspostavljanju prave tržišne ekonomije na Blakanu. <br />
<br />
Sličan tip narativa je da se privatnik bogati tako što zapošljava druge da rade za njega. Rekli biste: "Pa kakav sad prigovor ovome imaš? Ovo je gola činjenica." Ali, nije ovo gola činjenica. Prvo, nismo definirali što to znači biti bogat? Bogat u odnosu na što ili koga? Evo, ja sam bogat u odnosu na sebe prije petnaest godina, ali vjerovatno nisam bogat u odnosu na Billa Gatesa.<br />
<br />
Drugo, zar nije također točno da privatnik radi i za radnika? Ja sam, recimo, od sveučilišta u Waterloou i od sveučilišta u Guelphu dobio na raspolaganje ogromnu količinu njihovog kapitala koji mi koristi za to da učim studente i pišem znanstvene radove i tako zarađujem za sebe i svoju obitelj. Dakle, ja sam se "obogatio" "radeći za drugoga". Stavljam oba termina pod navodnike jer su oba subjektivna. Zavise u koju polovicu čaše gledate, onu punu ili onu praznu. <br />
<br />
Zašto se samo usredotočiti na "prazni" dio čaše, tj. na to da su ta sveučilišta od mene dobila na raspolaganje moj rad i da ja radim za njih. Točno, radim ja za njih, ali rade i oni za mane. Ja njima nudim moje usluge, a oni meni nude svoje. Moj radni odnos je u obostranu korist, a ne samo u korist mog poslodavca. To što netko ima koristi od mog rada ne znači da on od mene nešto otima ili da naš odnos ide na moju štetu. Tako je u svakom dobrovoljnom odnosu radnika i poslodavca.<br />
<br />
Nedavno sam napisao članak o neprijavaljenom radu ili, popularno, "radu na crno". Kad sam čitao neke komentare, imao sam osjećaj da čitam onaj moj esej o "nepravednoj" kanadskoj poljoprivredi gdje je, navodno, osobni profit prioritet. I tu kod našeg čovjeka postoji naglasak na "<span class="highlightNode">čaša</span> je
do pola prazna". U Kanadi, recimo, mnogi dostavljači
brze hrane rade na crno i na to prosječan Kanađaning gleda kao na nužno
zlo posla koji je vrlo slabo plaćen. Mnogi novi imigranti rade na crno
jer su drugačije neisplativi. Razina znanja im je takva da nisu baš
produktivni.<br />
<br />
Kod nas na Balkanu riječi koje se prvo spomenu kad se govori o radu na crno su kriminal i varanje <span class="text_exposed_show">države.
Dobija se dojam da bi naš čovjek radije bio po zakonu nezaposlen nego
da radi na crno. Ne znam da li je ovo posljedica one "bolje za dinar
ležeti nego za dva raditi" koja je bila aktualna za vrijeme Jugoslavije,
ali mi prilično liči na to. </span><br />
<br />
<div class="text_exposed_show">
Onu drugu, punu stranu čaše, malo tko spominje, a to je da je zaposlen
čovjek društveno dobro. Zaposlen čovjek proizvodi nešto što će nekome
biti od koristi. Zaposlen čovjek je aktivan, kreće se u krugu ostalih
zaposlenih ljudi i time dolazi u kontakt sa novim mogućnostima
produktivnog djelovanja. Ne treba zaboraviti i ono što je možda
najvažnije, a to je psihološki utjecaj zaposlenosti. Zaposlen čovjek ima
osjećaj svrhe. Nedostatak osjećaja svrhe korijen je mnogih psihičkih
problema i zato je za čovjekovo mentalno i fizičko zdravlje pogubno da
bude nezaposlen.<br />
<br />
Točno, bilo bi idealno kad bi država smanjila nepotrebne namete pa da rad <span class="_ezo" id="u_ps_jsonp_41_5_5" style="color: #e648ef; font-weight: bold;"></span>na crno ne bude surova realnost ili da svaki radnik bude dovoljno
produktivan da poslodavac za sve može da izdvoji državne namete. Ali iz
perspektive čovjeka koji treba preživjeti na neki smislen način, mnogo
je smislenije da si nađe neko zaposlenje, pa makar i na crno, ako ne
može drugačije, nego da sjedi i čeka da se zakon promijeni. Jeste, <span class="highlightNode">čaša</span> je do pola prazna, ali bolje je da bude do pola prazna, a do pola puna nego da bude do kraja prazna.</div>
</div>
Predrag Rajsichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00301941050662222192noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8574042803645542600.post-35425307286890209362017-08-20T10:14:00.000-04:002017-08-20T10:14:16.933-04:00Koga je šokirao Charlottesville, taj živi pod staklenim zvonomU jeku nedavnih događaja u Charlottesvilleu, mnogi progresivno orijentirani Kanađani su sa zgražanjem komentirali te događaje. Stanje šoka je bilo očigledno, "virtue signaling" također. Fraze jakog emotivnog naboja poput "<a href="https://hr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prvo_su_do%C5%A1li..." target="_blank">Prvo su došli ...</a>" su prštale na sve strane. Meni lično je bilo zabavno to gledati jer otkriva, po meni, mnogo ozbiljniji problem.<br />
<br />
Nisam komentirao nedavne incidente u Charlottesvilleu jer mi to nije ništa šokantno, ništa novo što prije nisam znao. Kao imigrant, naviknut
sam na latentni rasizam koji je posvuda. Zabrinjavajući nisu oni koji su
svjesni svog rasizma, poput onih čije nasilje smo upravo vidjeli. Odrastao sam okružen takvim ljudima.
<br />
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Više me brinu oni koji nisu svjesni svog
rasizma jer je njihovo ponašanje u ekstremno kriznim momentima teško predvidjedi, a mnogo je takvih. Nihova nesvijest se najbolje vidi u načinu na koji se
obezvrijeđuju iskustva useljenika, a sve pod etiketom "objektivne znanosti". Na primjer, u beskrajnom nizu ekonomskih studija koje analiziraju ekonomske efekte imigracije, pitanje uvijek ide ovako: "Da li imigranti
uzrokuju smanjenje plaća domaćeg stanovništva?" Implicitno je da se to podrazumijeva kao vrijednosno neutralno pitanje, objektivno, bez prejudiciranja ko je u ovoj priči manje ili više bitan. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
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Meni, koji sam šesnaest godina sa druge strane ovog "znanstvenog" pitanja, kao dan je jasno da se ovoj gore konstrukciji imigranti implicitno tretiraju kao mrtva materija koja, eto, sama od sebe dođe pa onda snizi plaće domaćeg stanovništva. Implicitno je takođe i to da se snižavanje plaće domaćeg stanovništva smatra lošim. Da se ne smatra lošim, ne bi se mi ekonomisti toliko trgali izučavajući taj "problem". A zašto je loše? Pa valjda zato što u prvi plan stavljamo tog domaćeg radnika i brine nas što je njegova plaća snižena. </div>
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<br /></div>
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U međuvremenu, nitko mi nikada nije rekao nešto poput: "Čovječe, pa ti imigranti su izgleda spremni pretrpjeti puno boli
kada gotovo nikad ne odbijaju raditi za manje plaće i pod gorim uvjetima od domaćeg stanovništva!" Nitko, koliko je meni poznato, nije analizirao znanstevno pitanje: "Da li bi plaće imigranata bile veće kad bi se domaći radnici s njima manje natjecali za iste poslove?" Ovo je isto ono prvo pitanje, ali iz perspektive inigranata. Dakle, pod krinkom znanstvene neutralnosti se provlači latentna netrpeljivost prema doseljenicima. </div>
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Drugi čest slučaj latentnog rasizma je kad se senzacionalistički izdvajaju slucajevi "dobrog susjeda inigranta." Nedavno je cijelu Kanadu obišao <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2016/03/26/rob-green-syrian-refugee-elora-ontario_n_9549064.html" target="_blank">tekst</a><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
<o:OfficeDocumentSettings>
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</xml><![endif]--> sa pričom u kojoj se govori o Sirijcu koji je pomogao svojim kanadskim susjedima
tijekom olujnog nevremana. Ono što je meni, kao nekadašnjoj izbjeglici, odmah palo na pamet su sljedeća pitanja: Što? Postoji nešto izvanredno u useljeniku kao dobrom susjedu? A što ako
nije dobar susjed? Ima li i on jednako pravo biti šupak kao i bilo tko
drugi?<br />
<br /></div>
Da pojasnim, iako se čini dobrom idejom ukazati na pozitivna djela
izbjeglica, ovakav pristup šalje rasističku poruku. Prvo, to podrazumijeva da je
važno posebno istaknuti da je dobronamjernik bio izbjeglica, kao da ne bismo
očekivali da izbjeglice pomažu svojim susjedima. No, zašto izbjeglica ne bi
pomogla? Članak pokušava reći onima koji ne vole izbjeglice: "Vidi,
izbjeglice su dobri ljudi". Time se podrazumijeva da je nužno uvjeriti
druge da izbjeglice mogu biti dobre, kao da se izbjeglice nekako razlikuju od
ostalih i moramo potvrditi njihovu ljudskost.
<br />
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<br /></div>
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Mnogi vjeruju da su takve priče potrebne jer postoji
mišljenje da neke izbjeglice neće pridonijeti svojim novim domovima i
društvima. No, većina rođenih Kanađana neće pridonijeti svom susjedstvu
na poseban način i to se smatra sasvim OK. Većina Kanađana ne zna ni imena svojih susjeda, ali se njihova pristojnost ne dovodi u pitanje zbog toga. Ne moramo pridonijeti našem susjedstvu na poseban način da bi nas smatrali pristojnim
ljudima. Podrazumijeva se da smo dobri ljudi sve dok ne učinimo nešto loše. Međutim, članci
poput onog koji sam prethodno povezao podrazumijevaju da izbjeglice trebaju
pokazati dodatni napor samo da bi došli do razine na kojoj je ostatak nas po
defaultu. <br />
<br />
Ovo su samo dva manja primjera latentnog rasizma na koji se svaki useljenik navikne kao što se ljudsko tijelo navikne na atmosferski pritisak zraka. Ali, bude nam zabavno kad se ti isti latentni rasisti svi nakostriješe na one rasiste koji su bar iskreni, jasni i glasni u svojim pobudama. </div>
Predrag Rajsichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00301941050662222192noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8574042803645542600.post-24496131207986450402017-07-27T10:48:00.002-04:002017-07-27T11:14:16.101-04:00Šta je bilo u smeđoj plastičnoj kutiji?O bježaniji iz Krajine početkom avgusta 1995. pisali su mnogi. Svi znamo kako je to bilo, iz milion perspektiva. Tako sam bar mislio jutros dok sam sporim hodom koračao od auta do kancelarije. Koračao sam sporo jer sam se nadao da ću do kancelarijskih vrata uspjeti da završim misao. I tada me strefi! Za mene taj događaj postoji ne kao vremenska linija nego kao niz scena koje pamtim, ali taj niz se iz godine u godinu skraćuje i svaka scena gubi poneki detalj. Siguran sam da je postojalo vrijeme kad sam znao šta je bilo u toj smeđoj plastičnoj kutiji u mojoj vitrini iza knjiga. Moralo je biti nešto važno kad je dospjelo na listu stvari po koje bih se vratio čak iz Bosanskog Novog u Petrinju te subote 5. 8. 1995.<br />
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U Bosanski Novi smo stigli dan prije, kada "je počelo", tetkinim Golfom dvojkom preko Šamarice, tetka, njeno dvoje djece, mama i ja. Išli smo "da se sklonimo u pozadinu dok ne prođe." U Bosanskom Novom smo se, sa još nekoliko porodica, smjestili u stanu nekih ljudi koji su se poznavali ili su bili rodbina sa nekim tetkinim komšijama, ali ja nisam imao pojma ko su oni, a ni sad ne znam. Kako je vrijeme odmicalo, i kako su vijesti za vijestima na TV-u promicale, postajalo je sve jasnije da se mi u Petrinju nećemo skoro vratiti. Ne znam kako i kad, ali tada je na snagu stupio plan B: da se neko od nas vrati i iz kuće pokupi najvažije stvari dok se još u Petrinju može. Pošto sam ja muško, a po godinama sam bio blizu vojnoj sposobnosti, odučili smo da ipak ide samo mama, a ja da ostanem u Novom. "Šta znaš kakvih budala ima pa te mogu napasti što ne braniš ognjište, tj. termoakumulacionu peć."<br />
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Dakle koji su to najvažniji artikli pokretne imovine šesnaestogodinjeg mene uspjeli da se probiju na tu listu? Kad biste me sad pitali da se sjetim, vjerovatno ne bih mogao, ali srećom, došao sam u posjed originalnog dokumenta koji je moja mama čuvala sve ove godine. Tu sve piše, plavo na bijelo i to šifrirano,<span class="fbPhotosPhotoCaption" data-ft="{"tn":"K"}" id="fbPhotoSnowliftCaption" tabindex="0"><span class="hasCaption"> u slučaju da poruka dodje u ruke nekome neželjenom. Šta ti je psiha tinejdžera odraslog u ratnoj zoni!</span></span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhtZL93rAtX1xatEBu0CMXxRP3Ehtb1_tkn4FJyruRw9Q98Lu-bTaohn5A1Y8M6bEdBRIBxmJkBEVP5LzMyuYxOlcEYZlG5WUjFzBLZ8ZJWO0H4dPsJbvY6B5KtgzQ8Rg8PrCE6fsMFfss2/s1600/15094478_10157610962460234_2141562690232082510_n.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="640" data-original-width="480" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhtZL93rAtX1xatEBu0CMXxRP3Ehtb1_tkn4FJyruRw9Q98Lu-bTaohn5A1Y8M6bEdBRIBxmJkBEVP5LzMyuYxOlcEYZlG5WUjFzBLZ8ZJWO0H4dPsJbvY6B5KtgzQ8Rg8PrCE6fsMFfss2/s320/15094478_10157610962460234_2141562690232082510_n.jpg" width="240" /></a></div>
<span class="fbPhotosPhotoCaption" data-ft="{"tn":"K"}" id="fbPhotoSnowliftCaption" tabindex="0"><span class="hasCaption">Lista prvo navodi glavne lokacije gdje se šta nalazi. Vitrina i fotelja u mojoj sobi su glavne lokacije. Dalje, vidimo da se nešto nalazi na petstotoj stranici enciklopedije u mojoj vitrini. Znate šta je tamo? Tamo je određena svota njemačkih maraka koje sam štedio za Leviske 501. Koliko je tačno bilo ne sjećam se, ali očito još ne dovoljno. Dalje, vidi se da mi je bilijarska kugla koja je bila u akvariju bila jako bitna. Nju sam ukrao u nekom bilijar-klubu, ali da me ubijete sad, ne mogu se sjetiti kojem. Samsung kazetofon je takođe našao svoje mjesto na listi. Ima dvije glave. Može da presnimava sa kasete na kasetu, a može i sa radija da snima. Zvučnici se odvajaju. Sva dugmad rade. Na kraju, vidimo da je bilo jako važno naći kaiš u ladici moga stola. Taj kaiš nije bio obični kaiš nego onaj sa nitnama. Vole ga i dizelaši i pankeri. Dakle a "must have item". </span></span><br />
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<span class="fbPhotosPhotoCaption" data-ft="{"tn":"K"}" id="fbPhotoSnowliftCaption" tabindex="0"><span class="hasCaption">Sigurno ste primijetili da sam nešto preskočio. Preskočio sam smeđu plastičnu kutiju u dnu vitrine iza knjiga, a preskočio sam je s razlogom. Ja nemam pojma o kakvoj kutiji se radi i šta je u njoj. Tom šesnaestogodišnjem meni je njen sadržaj očigledno bio vrlo bitan. Šta je u toj smeđoj plastičnoj kutiji u dnu vitrine iza knjiga? Ne bi šesnaestogodišnji ja to tako zakamuflirao da nije nešto važno. Opet, vidite po listi mojih prioriteta da bi se moglo raditi o nečemu vrlo "bitnom" kao što je još jedna bilijarska kugla. </span></span><br />
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<span class="fbPhotosPhotoCaption" data-ft="{"tn":"K"}" id="fbPhotoSnowliftCaption" tabindex="0"><span class="hasCaption">Bilo kako bilo, izgleda da nikad nećemo saznati šta je bilo u toj smeđoj plastičnoj kutiji iza knjiga u mojoj vitrini. Možda zna onaj ko je u moju kuću prvi ušao poslije "Oluje". Ako slučajno pročita ove retke, nadam se da neće da mi otkrije tu misteriju. Ljepše je ovako. </span></span>Predrag Rajsichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00301941050662222192noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8574042803645542600.post-84710983099244565312017-07-16T07:58:00.002-04:002017-07-16T08:05:19.414-04:00Poverty is a state of mind<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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Have you noticed that the phrase "pissing on the poor" is mostly used by people with above-average incomes? I deliberately use the term "people with above-average incomes" and not "people who are not poor". If someone called me poor in the 1990s, I would never have looked at him again. Why? Because to label someone as poor means to not recognize his control over his own life. As long as we don't consider ourselves poor, there is hope for us.<br />
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Some would argue: "Don't you think that our wealth depends on the system in which we live? For example, a slave is poor because the system has made him poor."<br />
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First, wealth and being poor are two different categories. Wealth is an objective category that can be measured in dollars, or any other monetary unit. Being poor is a subjective category. It is a state of mind. A person is poor when he perceives himself only as a victim of external circumstances. This person does not believe that he has any power over his own life.<br />
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A slave has very little wealth, but this does not prevent him from choosing how he is going to view the world. Put yourself in his position. Imagine that you know that you will spend your entire life as a slave. Are you going to choose to spend your only chance at being alive on viewing yourself as a victim of the system or will you choose make the best of what you have? I would have opted for the latter. That's why I gave a figurative “f… off” to all the UNPROFOR soldiers who pitied me as a victim of war and to all those who later pitied me as a refugee.<br />
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One might argue that this worldview does not motivate us to change the system. But, this interpretation would be wrong. When is the likelihood that people will change the system greater: when people are depressed and convinced in being complete victims of the system or when people are full of life energy? The fact that a slave may be full of life energy does not mean that he loves being a slave. It just means that if there is an opportunity for him to change his position, he will likely notice and take that opportunity. He will not wait for others to rescue him from his misfortune.<br />
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I know many of Canadians who could not fathom that someone could be happy in the conditions in which I once lived. When I told them that I was not desperate at the time and that I did not feel inferior to the people who lived in better conditions, they looked at me in disbelief. In fact, I was quite happy during that time. To them, I looked like a slave who chose to view himself as the master of his domain.<br />
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Since the sense self-ownership, even in the worst of times, is still fresh in my memory and it feels quite real, I have no problem imagining, say, an American slave at the beginning of the 19th century, who feels this kind of self-ownership. I can fully understand his deliberate refusal to be "poor" even though his wealth and his freedom of movement were very limited. A person who is a slave in his own mind can not fight for physical freedom, and a person who is poor in his own mind can not fight for financial freedom.
Predrag Rajsichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00301941050662222192noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8574042803645542600.post-7805521010619991022017-07-09T10:05:00.000-04:002017-07-09T10:24:34.247-04:00My debate with a CNN journalist who was justifying wars <div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; tab-stops: 45.8pt 91.6pt 137.4pt 183.2pt 229.0pt 274.8pt 320.6pt 366.4pt 412.2pt 458.0pt 503.8pt 549.6pt 595.4pt 641.2pt 687.0pt 732.8pt;">
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</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">This e-mail exchange was a response to the article "World's Right to
Intercede,” an editorial<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">
posted on Monday, May. 28, 2007
in <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Philadelphia Inquirer</i>. (</span><a href="http://www.philly.com/inquirer/opinion/20070528_Worlds_right_to_intercede.html"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">http://www.philly.com/inquirer/opinion/20070528_Worlds_right_to_intercede.html</span></a><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">). The article has been removed
from the original address, but I am copying it at the bottom of this post. </span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">The author of this article is Frida Ghitis, a frequent contributor to CNN Opinion, and a world affairs columnist for The Miami Herald and World Politics Review. She is
a former CNN producer and correspondent.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">My view, which I explained </span><a href="http://mises.org/daily/4115"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">here</span></a><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">, is that any justification for any war is just a nice wrapper in which
to put the bodies of innocent victims. Unfortunately this is not the claim of
those who start wars or those who support them or justify them. It is also
unfortunate that many people don’t have the time, energy, or necessary
information to unwrap this nicely wrapped package. We often support, or simply
fail to oppose, something that sounds good from the mouth of a politician,
while not being aware what it really entails. I have seen the suffering and
death of the innocent who felt the military “humanitarianism,” and I fail to
understand how one person’s misery can be justified by claiming it was a
necessary means for preventing another person’s misery. Well, it can’t, but the
“wrapper” in which this claim is packaged looks nice and shiny. And, we humans
tend to like shiny things. </span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">The email exchange between Ghitis and I:<br />
<br />
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 12.0pt; margin-left: 42.55pt; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm;">
On 5/28/07, PREDRAG RAJSIC wrote: </div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 12.0pt; margin-left: 42.55pt; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm;">
Dear Ms. Ghitis, </div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 12.0pt; margin-left: 42.55pt; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm;">
I was in Serbia in 1999. I don't find
the humanitarian bombing argument convincing. One of the reasons is: Croatia
was not pressured not to expel 250,000 Serbs August 4th - 7th, 1995. There
was no bombing then. There were no serious consequences to Croatia. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 12.0pt; margin-left: 42.55pt; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm;">
The other reason are civilian targets
and casualties of NATO bombing in 1999. One murder does not justify
another. You have probably seen the pictures. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 12.0pt; margin-left: 42.55pt; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm;">
The third reason is that most of the
Albanians killed in Kosovo before March 24th 1999 were members of KLA,
thus, not civilians. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 12.0pt; margin-left: 42.55pt; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm;">
The fourth reason is that the real
exodus of Albanians started after March 24th, 1999. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 12.0pt; margin-left: 42.55pt; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm;">
The fifth reason is that there are much
bloodiest conflicts in the world > that are not being addressed. If we
follow the principle of human rights protection, there should be no
discrimination among regions. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 12.0pt; margin-left: 42.55pt; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm;">
All this is not to say that there were
no crimes against Albanians in Kosovo but these crimes, in my opinion, had
little to do with the reasons for the bombing. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 12.0pt; margin-left: 42.55pt; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm;">
If you could please explain the
humanitarian nature of NATO bombing of Yugoslavia, that would be greatly
appreciated. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 12.0pt; margin-left: 42.55pt; margin-right: -.75pt; margin-top: 0cm;">
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Regards, </div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 12.0pt; margin-left: 42.55pt; margin-right: -.75pt; margin-top: 0cm;">
Predrag Rajsic </div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 12.0pt; margin-left: -.25pt; margin-right: -.75pt; margin-top: 0cm;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Rresponse by Ghitis: </i></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 12.0pt; margin-left: 42.55pt; margin-right: -.85pt; margin-top: 0cm;">
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Dear Mr. Rajsic, </i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 12.0pt; margin-left: 42.55pt; margin-right: -.85pt; margin-top: 0cm;">
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">I too was in the region during that time and, as you know, my view is
different. </i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 12.0pt; margin-left: 42.55pt; margin-right: -.85pt; margin-top: 0cm;">
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">The fact that action should have been taken in another place during
another time, doesn't mean it was wrong to take it later. If it was wrong to do
nothing in 1995, it doesn't make it wrong to take action in 1999. </i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 12.0pt; margin-left: 42.55pt; margin-right: -.85pt; margin-top: 0cm;">
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">The fact that there were civilian casualties from NATO also doesn't
mean it was wrong for NATO to intervene. Every war has innocent casualties. But
war is sometimes justified to stop even worse atrocities. That's the
humanitarian rationale. </i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 12.0pt; margin-left: 42.55pt; margin-right: -.85pt; margin-top: 0cm;">
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Humanitarian intervention is an evolving concept and it is definitely
not applied evenly. You are certainly right about that. That doesn't mean it is
wrong to apply it at all. </i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 12.0pt; margin-left: 42.55pt; margin-right: -.85pt; margin-top: 0cm;">
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Regards, </i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 12.0pt; margin-left: 42.55pt; margin-right: -.85pt; margin-top: 0cm;">
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Frida </i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 12.0pt; margin-left: -.3pt; margin-right: -.85pt; margin-top: 0cm;">
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">My
response to Ghitis:</b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 12.0pt; margin-left: 42.55pt; margin-right: -.85pt; margin-top: 0cm; text-indent: -.3pt;">
Dear Ms.
Ghitis, </div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 12.0pt; margin-left: 42.55pt; margin-right: -.85pt; margin-top: 0cm; text-indent: -.3pt;">
You
say:"But war is sometimes justified to stop even worse atrocities. That's
the humanitarian rationale." </div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 12.0pt; margin-left: 42.55pt; margin-right: -.85pt; margin-top: 0cm; text-indent: -.3pt;">
This implies
that you can predict the outcome of non-action and compare it to the outcome of
action. Furthermore, this implies that there is a unit of measurement of
atrocities.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It looks to me than the
question whether bombing of Yugoslavia was right can never be answered because
it is not known against which alternative outcome it would have to be
measured...and how it would be measured.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 12.0pt; margin-left: 42.55pt; margin-right: -.85pt; margin-top: 0cm; text-indent: -.3pt;">
Following the
same argument, the operations of the YU army and police were of humanitarian
nature because they were trying to protect Kosovo non-Albanians from the KLA.
And as evidence they could use 200,000 Serb refugees and about 3,000 killed
after 1999. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 12.0pt; margin-left: 42.55pt; margin-right: -.85pt; margin-top: 0cm; text-indent: -.3pt;">
The question
is not whether the bombing was right or wrong but whether the humanitarian
argument was the real reason for the bombing. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 12.0pt; margin-left: 42.55pt; margin-right: -.85pt; margin-top: 0cm; text-indent: -.3pt;">
The same way
the killing of Franz Ferdinand was not the real reason for WWI, I don't believe
that the Racak "massacre" was the real reason for bombing of Yugoslavia.
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 12.0pt; margin-left: 42.55pt; margin-right: -.85pt; margin-top: 0cm; text-indent: -.3pt;">
Regards, </div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 12.0pt; margin-left: 42.55pt; margin-right: -.85pt; margin-top: 0cm;">
Predrag</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 12.0pt; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: -.85pt; margin-top: 0cm;">
I received no response from Ms.
Ghitis after this. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 12.0pt; margin-left: 42.55pt; margin-right: -.85pt; margin-top: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt;">World's right to intercede</span></b></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">NATO's intervention in Serbia in
1999, to rescue ethnic Albanians,</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">established a new doctrine:
Genocide trumps sovereignty. That's why the</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">U.N. will likely make Kosovo
independent.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">Frida Ghitis </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">writes on foreign affairs </span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">In a few months, a new 10-foot
statue of Bill Clinton will take its place</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">overlooking Bill Clinton
Boulevard - in the city of Pristina, capital of</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">the breakaway province of Kosovo.
Remember Kosovo? For a few months, it</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">captured our attention. Now,
while the American public looks elsewhere, the</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">province is again becoming a test
case for how much say the international</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">community will have within the borders
of a sovereign nation. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">The surprising answer - in Kosovo
as in Darfur, and perhaps elsewhere - is</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">that this community can and must
have a say. Kosovo may be the turning</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">point that lays
noninterventionism down to a quiet sleep. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">In 1999, the United States led a
NATO force in a bombardment that</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">"persuaded" Serbian
forces to leave the ethnic Albanian enclave in a</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">crumbling Yugoslavia. Kosovo was
a province of Serbia. Unlike the Serbs,</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">however, the Kosovars were ethnic
Albanians, Muslims, who had resented the</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">central government in Serbia for
years. When ultra-nationalist Slobodan</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">Milosevic took Yugoslavia by
military storm after the end of the Cold War,</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">separatist guerrillas in Kosovo
came under ruthless attack from his army. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">The world had done too little too
late to protect civilians in other parts</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">of the now-defunct Yugoslavia,
allowing thousands of Bosnians and Croats to</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">die and millions to become
displaced in independence wars against Serbs.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">Faced with renewed carnage in the
Balkans - Serbian forces had killed about</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">10,000 Kosovars - Clinton finally
decided to act. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">With its NATO allies, the United
States went to war to protect Muslims.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">After a 78-day bombardment,
Serbian forces withdrew, and Kosovo became an</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">international protectorate. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">Now, eight years later, the time
has come to decide whether Kosovo will be</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">an independent nation - as the
overwhelming majority of its population</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">wants - or remain an autonomous
region in Serbia, as the Serbs demand, with</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">strong support from Russia. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">Serbia considers Kosovo a
spiritual, historical center of the nation. But</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">ethnic Albanians have always made
up the vast majority of the population.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">In a tragic, ironic turn of
events, ethnic Albanians, the beneficiaries of</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">Western help, have expelled
200,000 ethnic Serbs from the province since</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">war ended. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">In March, U.N. Special Envoy
Martti Ahtisaari, a former president of</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">Finland, proposed granting de
facto independence to Kosovo under European</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">supervision. The plan envisions
full independence and acceptance of both</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">Kosovo and Serbia into the
European Union. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">The Serbian government has
emphatically rejected the plan. With the</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">exception of Russia, which holds
veto power, it appears that all other</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">members of the U.N. Security
Council plan to vote for approval. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">The principal objection from
Belgrade and Moscow is that the plan sets a</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">dangerous precedent. If the
international community can vote in favor of a</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">separatist movement, slicing away
a big piece of a country, what's to stop</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">it from doing it elsewhere?
Moscow worries about places like Chechnya,</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">where Russian forces have waged a
brutal war against separatists. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">Russia may be justified in
worrying about Chechnya, but the larger worry -</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">about international
interventionism - is probably a decade too late. The</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">fact is, the international
community already has accepted that</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">interventionism will be part of
its future. When NATO took on what was a</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">domestic conflict in Serbia in
1999, it was breaking one of the cardinal</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">rules of international politics:
Never interfere in a country's internal</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">affairs. A new doctrine is
evolving. When a central government engages in</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">the massive slaughter of its own
people, it loses the right to be left</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">alone by the international
community. Genocide trumps sovereignty. That's</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">why Kosovo deserves independence
from Serbia. Incidentally, this is also</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">why Sudan, the tormentor of
Darfur, has lost the right to keep foreign</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">forces off its soil. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">The threshold for foreign
intervention in another country's domestic</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">affairs should be high, but not
unreachable. Kosovo already served as a</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">test case for military
intervention. It now stands as another marker in the</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">history of international affairs.
The fact is that despite Serbian and</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">Russia opposition, everyone knows
that Kosovo will become an independent</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">nation - a Muslim nation with
streets, statues and people honoring an</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">American president. How's that
for unusual? </span></div>
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Predrag Rajsichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00301941050662222192noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8574042803645542600.post-22962604003073227782017-03-17T00:44:00.002-04:002017-03-17T01:01:02.742-04:00Why I stopped checking my Facebook notifications<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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Ever had a neighbour or an acquaintance who is a gossiper and likes to cause tension and conflict among people? I am sure all of us can find one of those people around us. They usually come disguised as a friend. They approach you as if they are trying to help you by telling you what someone somewhere said about you behind your back. They are presenting themselves as your allay, your guardian angel.<br />
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But, this, of course, is just an illusion. What they really want is conflict and restlessness. They feed off other people's fears and insecurities.
Whenever I think of them, I think of this song by Susan and Terry Jacks.<br />
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<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/QfeEcCLMtxk" width="560"></iframe>
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But, what does Facebook have to do with your evil gossiping neighbor? In my view, a lot. Facebook notifications are like that psychopath manipulative neighbour gossiper who follows you around with: "Hey, those people who you talked to a few days ago, they said something about you behind your back. Do you want me to tell you what they said?"<br />
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Even if you don't want to know what someone said about you, it requires mental effort to make the decision not to read what they said. And then, if you read, it requires mental effort to decide not to respond. Imagine making tens of such efforts in a day. That can become quite tiring. Most of us don't actually make that effort, but we check each and every notification. We read all the responses to our comments. We check each reaction to our comments in other discussions. We are made aware of every snarky remark or insult someone made about us. This too can be tiring and damaging.This is why I stopped checking my notifications. It has been about a month now since I last clicked that little globe in the top corner of my Facebook ribbon, and it feels great. <br />
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This might sound a bit extreme. Why would you avoid all notifications? Some might be benign or even nice or encouraging. This is true, and while you might for a brief moment enjoy seeing that positive feedback, if it is really important to those people who want to give you this feedback that you actually receive it, they can contact you directly in your inbox or on your wall. You don't need your gossiper neighbour to tell you that someone said something nice about you in your absence. This applies to negative feedback as well. If someone really feels strongly about some comment you left in a discussion last week, they can always contact you directly.<br />
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Avoiding Facebook notifications can act as a filter, a screening tool. Having to contact someone directly is usually more costly in terms of time and effort. Thus, only those who think the benefits of contacting you directly outweigh the costs will contact you. This way, you will increase the likelihood of talking to people who actually think they will benefit from talking to you in a serious and committed manner. You will also reduce the likelihood of having to deal with trolls or people who don't think through their claims before they post.<br />
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A decision to not check notifications does not mean that you will never
respond to other people's comments in some discussion. It simply means that this
discussion needs to be important enough to you and that you know on whose
wall you can find it again, so you can go back and check the discussion.
This way, you are filtering out those discussions, topics, and people who are not important to you and you are focusing on the important ones.<br />
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Thus, not checking Facebook notifications can serve as a filtering tool in two directions. First, it would tend to put you in contact with people who sincerely care about you and your views. On the other hand, it would put you in contact with people for whom you have a deeper respect and who you take seriously. Some golden rules of communication from the real world still apply in the digital world, and this is one of them--you don't have to throw a stone at every dog that barks at you. In fact, you don't even need to be aware of the barking most of the time. <br />
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<br />Predrag Rajsichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00301941050662222192noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8574042803645542600.post-33009699601629574042017-01-04T12:04:00.001-05:002018-05-01T10:26:12.428-04:00Why everyone should know some economics<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjCJClDSw_yHP6Uh0iR0onxmzb7iJPyaRKjowgqjpJdFBv9aZK_u64payLIJhoWQJl-ZNx_TDSlc0PMRLhhd_I8T_bMlUs8KMu0d_H5gUyVSkrEiRob6BgWjlqM2PyEo_N7z9jKEYFppZMV/s1600/inflation.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="156" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjCJClDSw_yHP6Uh0iR0onxmzb7iJPyaRKjowgqjpJdFBv9aZK_u64payLIJhoWQJl-ZNx_TDSlc0PMRLhhd_I8T_bMlUs8KMu0d_H5gUyVSkrEiRob6BgWjlqM2PyEo_N7z9jKEYFppZMV/s320/inflation.png" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">As a child, I was a billionaire. I used to own a few of these.</td><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"> </td><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"> </td><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"> </td></tr>
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<i>This is my welcome letter for my first and second year economics students in which I explain why everyone should know some economics.</i><br />
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For many of you, this is the first time you are studying economics in a systematic way, and the most important question at the back of your mind is probably this: “Why am I doing this?” There are many reasons why you might be taking this course, and for some of you the desire to understand economic phenomena may not be the main motivational factor. This is perfectly fine. But, when one decides to dedicate most of his life to studying economics, one usually does this because of the desire to learn. I would like to share how I became interested in economics.<br />
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Sometime in the early 1990s, I lived in the former Yugoslavia, a country torn by war and extreme economic hardships. This was also the time of one of the worst episodes of hyperinflation in human history. I remember the days when my parents would get their paycheques from their employer. People would run to the store to spend their paycheque quickly, before the prices of everything doubled the same day. If you waited for more then one day, all you could buy for your monthly salary was maybe a kilo of sugar.<br />
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I, a high schooler at the time, was quite puzzled by this situation, especially because I saw a rapid decline in people’s well-being. I wanted to know why all this mess was happening. When I turned on the TV, our politicians were repeating that they needed to keep printing more money to help the citizens keep up with the rapidly rising prices. Many of you already see that there is something fishy in this story. I did too at the time, but I couldn’t quite pinpoint the logical inconsistency in this story.
There was nothing in my high school curriculum that could help me either. I loved chemistry, physics, and math but none of those disciplines could explain inflation or why people are living so miserably in my country. I also liked art, history, sociology, and geography, but I found no explanation for our economic hardships there ether.<br />
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Only after I started studying economics, I realized its tremendous power to explain why some societies are poor while others are prosperous. I also learned that our Yugoslavian politicians in the 1990s were lying to us. It is not the rise in prices that prompted the politicians to print more money. The causality run in the opposite direction. It was the politicians’ desire to fund the failing government programs that prompted them to print more money. Once the market was flooded with new money, consumers started competing over the dwindling stock of products, which caused a surge in the prices of everything.<br />
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This is only one social issue which can be vastly clarified using the economic way of thinking. For many of you, this will be the only economics course that you will ever take. But, in your future you will be deciding on important economic matters. For example, some future politician may tell you that introducing trade restrictions will be good for Canadian economy, and he or she may ask for your support in introducing laws that restrict trade. If I can teach you how to use the economic way of thinking to determine whether this, and many other proposed economic policies, will bring the promised consequences, I consider my mission accomplished.
Predrag Rajsichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00301941050662222192noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8574042803645542600.post-4479542476419792712016-12-26T09:27:00.000-05:002016-12-26T09:28:11.767-05:00Ono za što su Titu trebale dvije decenije, Slobi je uspjelo za manje od tri godine<br />
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Predrag Rajsichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00301941050662222192noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8574042803645542600.post-47705569242581793012016-07-31T10:42:00.000-04:002017-08-04T12:59:45.270-04:00Zašto Oluja za mene nije bila (samo) tragedija<div class="fb-like" data-action="like" data-href="http://predragrajsic.blogspot.ca/2016/07/zasto-oluja-za-mene-nije-bila-tragedija.html" data-layout="standard" data-share="true" data-show-faces="true" data-size="small">
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiaDv13F_3HKn09S-IMpsMfpRpV6uy9yjVteJPO62n3cKIAroeCH2HarJNpHekqXFhwZTQlOHPAjpVaZRLENZPBTH87NaZ_syBfX6Cktu7dHC4WQT_ao-RILzIFoW43eyzVkScOAxH8k6b-/s1600/905975_Oluja1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiaDv13F_3HKn09S-IMpsMfpRpV6uy9yjVteJPO62n3cKIAroeCH2HarJNpHekqXFhwZTQlOHPAjpVaZRLENZPBTH87NaZ_syBfX6Cktu7dHC4WQT_ao-RILzIFoW43eyzVkScOAxH8k6b-/s320/905975_Oluja1.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
Prvo da naglasim da je ovo priča o mom ličnom, subjektivnom viđenju. Za neke ljude Oluja je bila samo i isključivo tragedija i to ne želim da sporim. Za mene nije. Drugo, to što za mene Oluja nije bila samo tragedija i što mi je donijela neke bitne pozitivne pomake u životu, ne znači da sam je priželjkivao i da mislim da su tragedije koje su drugi proživjeli bile neophodna cijena mojih pozitivnih pomaka. To ne znači ni da je Oluja bila jedini način da dođe do tih pozitivnih pomaka. Moglo je do njih doći i na druge načine, ali je činjenica da je sada, iz ove perspektive, Oluja <i>jedini</i> način na koji je do njih u stvari i došlo. Kao takav, treba ga ocijenjivati u odnosu na ono što je njoj prethodilo, a ne u odnosu na neki naš zamišljeni idealni način koji bi mogao promijeniti ono što je Oluji prethodilo. Što se tiče mojih tragedija, ja sam ih doživio nekoliko godina prije Oluje, a što se same Oluje tiče, za mene je to bio ektremno stresan, ali oslobađajući događaj. Međutim, nije bila oslobađajuća na način kako će to hrvatski mediji prikazivati za ovih dana. Oluja je za mene bila oslobađajuća iz nekoliko razloga. <br />
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<b>1. To je bio kraj četvorogodišnjeg iščekivanja napada hravtske vojske koji je svako malo najavljivan.</b><br />
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Taj famozni predstojeći napad bio je povod za sijaset restrikcija od strane tadašnje nam države, Republike Srpske Krajine. Te su uvodili poličijski čas, te zabrane javnog okupljanja, te restrikcije struje i goriva "da bi bilo za vojsku." Najgore su ipak bile restrikcije koje su ljudi sami sebi dobrovoljno postavljali. Svaka značajnija odluka stavljena je na čekanje "dok se ne riješi situacija." Kupovima ili prodaja imovine, ulaganje u vlastita imanja pa čak i započinjanje porodice mnogi ljudi su stavili na čekanje. Oluja je konačno razriješila sve dileme. Nema više nesigurne budućnosti. Budućnost nije ružičasta, ali je bar sigurna. Znamo na čemu smo.<br />
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<b>2. To je bio kraj vladavine ljudskog ološa koji je na površinu isplivao u svim sferama društvenog života tokom ratnih previranja 1991. </b><br />
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Veliki je broj događaja koje sam sam posmatrao ili o kojima sam slušao od rođaka i prijatelja to potvrđuje. Ljudi koji su do prije rata bili beznačajni marginalci su se početkom rata istakli agresivnošu i okrutnošću i time stekli ključne pozicije u mafijaškoj strukturi koja je upravljala životom u Krajini. To se prelilo i u živote nas tinejdžera pa su glavni junaci naših priča postali lokalni siledžije. Pričalo se o tome ko je koga istukao, ubio ili "poslao u p... materinu". Agresivnost i intimidacija su bili vladajući obrazac ponašanja. Pokušao sam protiv njega da se borim, ali i da ga oponašam, i u oba slučaja sam iskusio samo frustracije. Oluja je stavila tačku na sve to. <br />
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<b>3. To je bio početak života u većoj i otvorenijoj sredini. </b><br />
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Iako mnogi Srbiju doživljavaju kao zatvorenu balkansku sredinu, u usporedbi sa ratnom Krajinom, Srbija je bila centar svijeta. Treću i četvrtu godinu srednje škole sam završio u Kruševcu, koji je bio dovoljno velik da svako može da nađe dovoljno ljudi koji će ga razumjeti i dovoljno velik da iz viđenja ne poznajemo gotovo sve ljude u gradu, što je bio slučaj sa mjestom iz koga sam došao. Kao i u svakom malom mjestu, obrazac ponašanja u mom rodnom gradu je bio usko ograničen na ono što je ta sredina smatrala ispravnim. <span class="text_exposed_show">Iskakanje iz tih okvira kažnjavalo se izvrgavanjem sudu palanke. Ta tortura je završena u avgustu 1995. Tačno je da sam izgubio kuću, ali nisam izgubio dom jer je moja porodica uspješno funkcionisala i u izbjeglištvu. Našao sam nove prijatelje, a i neke stare sam viđao. </span><br />
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<span class="text_exposed_show">Možda se isti ishod mogao postići i na drugi način, ali činjenica je da te druge načine nećemo nikada iskusiti. Da se Oluja desila godinu dana kasnije, to bi bila još jedna godina mučnog iščekivanja u toksičnoj, agresivnoj palanačkoj sredini. Da se Oluja nikad nije ni desila, to bi vjerovatno značilo još nekoliko decenija polu-života u takvoj sredini. Dakle, mene je Oluja oslobodila svega toga. </span>Predrag Rajsichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00301941050662222192noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8574042803645542600.post-8706845591221813212016-07-05T12:45:00.002-04:002016-07-05T12:45:18.301-04:00Your past doesn't determine your future: or how Rogers persuaded me to stop using their data servicesDo you get annoyed when someone tells you that you are not capable of doing something just because you never did it before? Most people make this mistake even when they judge their own future. For example, many people get discouraged after a few unsuccessful attempts to quit smoking or to change some other behavior pattern. They think that their past offers information about their future. This is a common mistake that most of us sometimes do.<br />
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But, if it is true that we make choices, then our past is simply a series of choices that we made before. it is a historical record, not a causal relationship. Just because we made the same choice over and over again in the past doesn't mean that there is something deterministic about our behavior--it doesn't mean that we <b><i>had to </i></b>make that choice because if we <b><i>had to</i></b> do something, then that something wouldn't be a choice.<br />
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Now when we have the theory laid out, let me share an experience where a sales person tried to use the historical record of my past behavior to support the idea that <b><i>I had to</i></b> behave that way in the past and that <i><b>I have to</b></i> keep behaving the same way in the future. The following is my conversation between me and a Rogers sales person.<br />
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<i>Sales person: We have a data plan that would give you 2.5 GB of data on your pho<span class="text_exposed_show">ne. The only thing we would need to do is to change your bill from the current $60 to $100. </span></i><br />
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<i>
Me: I don't think I am interested in that. The only thing I would be
interested in is that Rogers gives me more data without increasing what I
am currently paying. But, since Rogers is using its oligopoly position,
I know it will not do that. </i><br />
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<i> Sales person: But this is a great
plan for you; you are already accumulating over $50 in extra charges for
exceeding your data limit. Why don't you want to take this great plan?</i><br />
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<i> Me: Because I like to make mistakes. </i><br />
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<i> Sales person: I am trying to help you not to make a mistake. Why not take this plan? </i><br />
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<i> Me: Because then I would not have an option to spend less than $100 on my phone bill, an option that I have now. </i><br />
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<i>
Sales person: You have been exceeding your data limit for the past
three months and accumulating more than $100 in total charges.</i><br />
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<i> Me: My past doesn't determine my future.</i><br />
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This conversation persuaded me that Rogers doesn't deserve my money. I thought that they are capable of respecting their customers' free will and intelligence, but I was wrong. This is why I decided to stop using my phone data for anything other than emergencies. No more Facebook on the phone! This is what happened to my data usage history after the unfortunate conversation on June 16th. The flat part of the graph below starts on the same date. <br />
<i> </i><br />
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<a href="https://scontent.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/13508830_10156973320305234_8411361607473356967_n.jpg?oh=ffa4f6c511f3ae9b22973c1a560a43d7&oe=5801DC7A" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="400" src="https://scontent.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/13508830_10156973320305234_8411361607473356967_n.jpg?oh=ffa4f6c511f3ae9b22973c1a560a43d7&oe=5801DC7A" width="225" /></a></div>
<i> </i></div>
So, there you go, Rogers. You lost about $50 per month from me. It may not be much for you, but given the persistence by which your sales person tried to sell your plan to me, maybe it is much. <br />
<br />Predrag Rajsichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00301941050662222192noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8574042803645542600.post-70386001303181081152016-07-03T03:38:00.000-04:002018-11-29T23:21:11.751-05:0029. novembar 1991. je bio petak. Ne pamtim ga zato što je bio Dan republike, bar ne direktno zbog toga. Mada, da na taj petak nije pao Dan republike, vjerovatno ne bih imao razloga da ga pamtim. Ovako sam imao razloga, ali ne zato što je bio državni praznik. Taj dan je za mene bio mnogo važniji praznik. Tog petka se moj stariji brat, Miodrag, nenadano pojavio na vratima naše kuće u Petrinji. Nenadano zato što je on u to vrijeme pohađao vojnu školu u Kruševcu, koja je, inače, nekoliko mjeseci prije toga izmještena iz Zagreba zbog političkih i vojnih previranja u Hrvatskoj.<br />
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Ja sam tog dana bio presretan. Samo sam ga gledao i upijao svaku njegovu riječ. Posebno sam upijao ove njegove riječi: "Tražio sam da me puste kući za praznik, na dva dana, ali...ja se tamo ne vraćam. Ne mogu ja tamo da budem dok je tu kod vas rat i ne znam jeste li živi ili niste." Mama i tata su samo klimnuli glavom uz jedno pomirljivo "dobro." Svima nam je bilo jasno da je Jugoslavija otišla u tri lijepe, a s njome i Jugoslovenska narodna armija, čiji je moj brat bio pitomac. Znali smo mi da će on u njihovim knjigama biti zaveden kao dezerter i da bi to možda moglo imati ozbiljne posljedice. Ali, to je tada bilo manje bitno. <br />
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Tog 29. novembra Jugoslavija je definitivno umrla u mojoj dvanaestogodišnjoj duši. <br />
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<br />Predrag Rajsichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00301941050662222192noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8574042803645542600.post-10730823895283675932016-06-07T14:28:00.003-04:002021-07-25T08:43:56.214-04:00Да ли је Ђоковић највећи Србин послије Тесле?<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj05zec0WXYEuH2Ohv44R1tO3cDbRB0M1TVGTLRXV6K9P0weRmhbmC9EAf2K8MK2qZh7-DrGOnGpTG_8FQ1MhqevO9tKfIVtpm0p8iAQbKLiCpR8gHzeYANi2UtgQSVbf23UWrTzOVIDK8d/s1600/Djokovic.jpeg" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj05zec0WXYEuH2Ohv44R1tO3cDbRB0M1TVGTLRXV6K9P0weRmhbmC9EAf2K8MK2qZh7-DrGOnGpTG_8FQ1MhqevO9tKfIVtpm0p8iAQbKLiCpR8gHzeYANi2UtgQSVbf23UWrTzOVIDK8d/s320/Djokovic.jpeg" width="236" /></a></div>
Врло је добро познато да је Новак Ђоковић нешто попут националног хероја за многе Србе. Недавно је назван и једним од два највећа Србина, а други би требало да буде Никола Тесла. Мислим да је ово проблематично из два разлога.<br />
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Прво, зашто је толико важно да је Ђоковић из Србије? Ово је, чини се, особина која га дефинише, ако је вјеровати његовим поносним сународницима. Али, његово српство нема ништа са његовом тениском величином. Изгледа да ово не говори толико о самом Ђоковићу колико говори о онима који дају овакве коментаре. Ово ме води до другог разлога зашто мислим да је сва та "највећи Србин" мантра забрињавајућа.<br />
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Ако његово српство није узрок његове тениске величине, а није, чини се онда да је наглашавање Ђоковићеве националности сигнал жеље осталих Срба да кажу свијету: "ево видите, он је један од нас; он нас представља." Али, зашто бих ја хтио да ме представља Ђоковић, а не моја лична постигнућа? Па, ако осјећам да су моја лична постигнућа безначајна, онда би имало смисла користити туђа постигнућа као да сам и ја дио њих.<br />
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Ово је тужно. Изгледа да опсесија Ђоковићем сигнализира врло низак степен самопоуздања код многих Срба. Занима ме шта ће бити кад Ђоковић више не буде на врхунцу каријере. Један могући сценарио је да он тада постане извор бијеса многима од оних којима је сада извор поноса. <br />
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<br />Predrag Rajsichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00301941050662222192noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8574042803645542600.post-24659800777671238962016-06-07T13:48:00.001-04:002016-06-07T13:48:06.828-04:00Is Djokovic "the greatest Serb" after Tesla?<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgOTCBlMjogYTpipxHqyEeTH1InLJyykp6pBRWjBvsUqs8VeNK6vij5__oqbu-VryY33xeI2fofI7RYIBpno4QDmkFHo0oYCXJ9syOLhNeX4fKLG8f6wUm66XxxZBa9oUV-D-CYpO-teL_D/s1600/Djokovic.jpeg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="" border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgOTCBlMjogYTpipxHqyEeTH1InLJyykp6pBRWjBvsUqs8VeNK6vij5__oqbu-VryY33xeI2fofI7RYIBpno4QDmkFHo0oYCXJ9syOLhNeX4fKLG8f6wUm66XxxZBa9oUV-D-CYpO-teL_D/s320/Djokovic.jpeg" title="" width="236" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Large Caption: Two Greatest Serbs </td></tr>
</tbody></table>
It is well known that Novak Djokovic is somewhat of a national hero for many Serbs. Recently, people started calling him "one of the two greatest Serbs," the other being Nikola Tesla. I find this unfortunate for two reasons.<br />
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First, why is it so important that Djokovic comes form Serbia? This seems to be his defining feature according to the proud compatriots. His Serbianness has nothing to do with his greatness as a tennis player. It seems that this is not so much about Djokovic as much it is about the commentators. and this leads me to the second reason why I find this whole "the greatest Serb" thing troubling.<br />
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If being Serbian is not what caused Djokovic's tennis greatness, then it seems that the emphasis on Djokovic's nationality signals the desire of other Serbs to say to the world "see, he is one of us; he represents us." But, why would I want to use Djokovic to represent myself instead my own achievements? Well, if I feel that my own achievements are insignificant, then it would make sense to use someone else's achievements as if I am part of them.<br />
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This is saddening. The Djokovic obsession seems to signal a very low self esteem level by many Serbs. I am curious to see the reaction when Djokovic is not at his peak any more. One potential outcome is that he becomes a source of anger for many of those who now see him as a source of their pride. Predrag Rajsichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00301941050662222192noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8574042803645542600.post-60843682233530636982016-05-30T01:37:00.002-04:002019-02-22T12:18:13.371-05:00Growing up as a discovery of new perspectives versus growing up as a funeral of your childhood<span style="font-size: large;">A healthy attitude: Growing up as a discovery of new perspectives: </span><br />
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<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/pSDF8VvU13M" width="420"></iframe><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;">An unhealthy attitude: Growing up as a funeral of your childhood:</span><br />
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<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/pXRviuL6vMY" width="560"></iframe><br />
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<br />Predrag Rajsichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00301941050662222192noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8574042803645542600.post-41857869405606413142016-03-26T13:49:00.002-04:002016-03-26T14:56:18.185-04:00Do we need evidence that Syrian refugees are human?<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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I lived about one quarter of my life as a refugee--six years in Serbia and four years in Canada. That experience gave me a special "insider" perspective on racism that I would like to share here. The reason I would like to share my perspective is to point to the idea that sometimes we think we are helping refugees, but we are in fact not helping at all. We might even be helping those who want to harm refugees, and we may be dancing to the racists' tune. <br />
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Those unfortunate situations when we are dancing to the racists' tune may occur when news articles are geared toward "dispelling the negative image of refugees." For example, a recent article titled "<a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2016/03/26/rob-green-syrian-refugee-elora-ontario_n_9549064.html" target="_blank">What Are Syrian Refugees Like? This Canadian Found Out</a>" talks about a Syrian who helped his Canadian neighbours during the recent ice storm.<br />
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Although it seems like a good idea to point out the positive deeds of refugees, this article is sending a racist message. First, it implies that it was important to specifically point out that the good-doer was a refugee, as if
we wouldn't expect refugees to help their neighbours. But, why wouldn't a refugee help? The article is trying to say to those who don't like refugees: "See,
refugees are good people." By doing that, it is implying that it is necessary to persuade others that refugees are capable of being good, as if refugees
are somehow different from the rest of us and we need to verify their
humanity.<br />
<br />
Many believe that <span data-ft="{"tn":"K"}"><span class="UFICommentBody">stories like this are needed </span></span><span data-ft="{"tn":"K"}"><span class="UFICommentBody"><span data-ft="{"tn":"K"}"><span class="UFICommentBody">since there is an opinion shared by some that refugees will not contribute to their new homes and societies</span></span>. </span></span><span data-ft="{"tn":"K"}"><span class="UFICommentBody">But, the thing is--most of us Canadians won't contribute to our neighbourhoods in any special way, and that's considered OK. I don't know the names of most of my neighbours, but no one is questioning my decency because of that. We don't have to contribute to our neighbourhoods in any special way to be considered decent people. It is taken as default that we are good people until we do something bad. </span></span><span data-ft="{"tn":"K"}"><span class="UFICommentBody">But, articles like the one I linked above imply that
refugees need to show extra effort just to get to the level where the
rest of us get by default. </span></span><br />
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<span data-ft="{"tn":"K"}"><span class="UFICommentBody">We still might try to defend the article's narrative by saying say that </span></span><span data-ft="{"tn":"K"}"><span class="UFICommentBody"><span data-ft="{"tn":"K"}"><span class="UFICommentBody">stories like these are meant to reinforce the idea that suspicion of refugees is unwarranted. But, if we take this claim seriously, we are insulting the intelligence of our fellow Canadians. I am confident that the average Canadian </span></span></span></span><span data-ft="{"tn":"K"}"><span class="UFICommentBody">does not need anyone to tell him that refugees are human just like the rest of us. Just like within any group of
people, there are good people among refugees, but there are also some nasty ones. Neither the good ones nor the bad ones represent the whole
group. If I am wrong in this assumption about the ability of our fellow Canadians to recognize the humanity of other people, then we should be afraid of our fellow Canadians, not the refugees. The most dangerous people are those whose belief in other people's humanity depends on anecdotal evidence and public opinion. </span></span><br />
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<span data-ft="{"tn":"K"}"><span class="UFICommentBody"><span data-ft="{"tn":"K"}"><span class="UFICommentBody"></span></span></span></span>If you have lived as a refugee anywhere, you know that no amount of
effort to show that you are as good of a human as anyone else will ever
be enough for those who are racist. Therefore, don't. Don't play to the
racist's tune and let them manipulate you into trying to prove your
humanity. Those who don't have faith in your humanity to begin with will not be persuaded by any amount of evidence. <br />
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Predrag Rajsichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00301941050662222192noreply@blogger.com0